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Quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is important for safety-critical applications because it helps spot incorrect answers, known as hallucinations. One major trend of uncertainty quantification methods is based on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Lucie Kunitomo-Jacquin , Edison Marrese-Taylor , Ken Fukuda

Large language models (LLMs) are widely used in decision-making, but their reliability, especially in critical tasks like healthcare, is not well-established. Therefore, understanding how LLMs reason and make decisions is crucial for their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Ze Yu Zhang , Arun Verma , Finale Doshi-Velez , Bryan Kian Hsiang Low

Modern language models (LMs) pose a new challenge in capability assessment. Static benchmarks inevitably saturate without providing confidence in the deployment tolerances of LM-based systems, but developers nonetheless claim that their…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-07-31 Michael Saxon , Ari Holtzman , Peter West , William Yang Wang , Naomi Saphra

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Xiaoping Du

Medical large language models (LLMs) research often makes bold claims, from encoding clinical knowledge to reasoning like a physician. These claims are usually backed by evaluation on competitive benchmarks; a tradition inherited from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-17 Ahmed Alaa , Thomas Hartvigsen , Niloufar Golchini , Shiladitya Dutta , Frances Dean , Inioluwa Deborah Raji , Travis Zack

Uncertainty quantification approaches have been more critical in large language models (LLMs), particularly high-risk applications requiring reliable outputs. However, traditional methods for uncertainty quantification, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Ferhat Ozgur Catak , Murat Kuzlu

The popular success of text-based large language models (LLM) has streamlined the attention of the multimodal community to combine other modalities like vision and audio along with text to achieve similar multimodal capabilities. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Debarpan Bhattacharya , Apoorva Kulkarni , Sriram Ganapathy

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly explored as knowledge bases (KBs), yet current evaluation methods focus too narrowly on knowledge retention, overlooking other crucial criteria for reliable performance. In this work, we rethink…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Danna Zheng , Mirella Lapata , Jeff Z. Pan

Real-world settings where language models (LMs) are deployed -- in domains spanning healthcare, finance, and other forms of knowledge work -- require models to grapple with incomplete information and reason under uncertainty. Yet most LM…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Alana Renda , Jillian Ross , Michael Cafarella , Jacob Andreas

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, the need for robust and standardized evaluation benchmarks becomes paramount. Evaluating the performance of these models is a complex challenge that requires careful consideration of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-01 Marco AF Pimentel , Clément Christophe , Tathagata Raha , Prateek Munjal , Praveen K Kanithi , Shadab Khan

Large language models are increasingly used as automated evaluators in research and enterprise settings, a practice known as LLM-as-a-judge. While prior work has examined accuracy, bias, and alignment with human preferences, far less…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Fiona Lau

Prospect Theory (PT) models human decision-making behaviour under uncertainty, among which linguistic uncertainty is commonly adopted in real-world scenarios. Although recent studies have developed some frameworks to test PT parameters for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Rui Wang , Qihan Lin , Jiayu Liu , Qing Zong , Tianshi Zheng , Dadi Guo , Haochen Shi , Weiqi Wang , Yangqiu Song

Large Language Models (LLMs) tend to be unreliable in the factuality of their answers. To address this problem, NLP researchers have proposed a range of techniques to estimate LLM's confidence over facts. However, due to the lack of a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-28 Matéo Mahaut , Laura Aina , Paula Czarnowska , Momchil Hardalov , Thomas Müller , Lluís Màrquez

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has established standardized evaluation benchmarks as the primary instrument for model comparison. Yet, their reliability is increasingly questioned due to sensitivity to shallow…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Bogdan Kostić , Conor Fallon , Julian Risch , Alexander Löser

We introduce BSDetector, a method for detecting bad and speculative answers from a pretrained Large Language Model by estimating a numeric confidence score for any output it generated. Our uncertainty quantification technique works for any…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Jiuhai Chen , Jonas Mueller

Large Language Models (LLMs) are valued for their strong performance across various tasks, but they also produce inaccurate or misleading outputs. Uncertainty Estimation (UE) quantifies the model's confidence and helps users assess response…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Heydar Soudani , Evangelos Kanoulas , Faegheh Hasibi

This paper explores generalised probabilistic modelling and uncertainty estimation in comparative LLM-as-a-judge frameworks. We show that existing Product-of-Experts methods are specific cases of a broader framework, enabling diverse…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Yassir Fathullah , Mark J. F. Gales

Language models (LMs) are increasingly used as simulacra for people, yet their ability to match the distribution of views of a specific demographic group and be \textit{distributionally aligned} remains uncertain. This notion of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-11 Nicole Meister , Carlos Guestrin , Tatsunori Hashimoto

While logical reasoning evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) has attracted significant attention, existing benchmarks predominantly rely on multiple-choice formats that are vulnerable to random guessing, leading to overestimated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Qin Zhu , Fei Huang , Runyu Peng , Keming Lu , Bowen Yu , Qinyuan Cheng , Xipeng Qiu , Xuanjing Huang , Junyang Lin

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has emerged as a promising approach for detecting hallucinations and low-quality output of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, obtaining proper uncertainty scores is complicated by the conditional…