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We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-18 Timothy Christensen , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

This study proposes a debiasing method for smooth nonparametric estimators. While machine learning techniques such as random forests and neural networks have demonstrated strong predictive performance, their theoretical properties remain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-19 Masahiro Kato

The last decade has seen a number of advances in computationally efficient algorithms for statistical methods subject to robustness constraints. An estimator may be robust in a number of different ways: to contamination of the dataset, to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-08 Gautam Kamath

Systematic sampling is often used to select plot locations for forest inventory estimation. However, it is not possible to derive a design-unbiased variance estimator for a systematic sample using one random start. As a result, many forest…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-22 Chad Babcock , Andrew O. Finley , Timothy G. Gregoire , Hans-Erik Andersen

Generalized linear models are a popular tool in applied statistics, with their maximum likelihood estimators enjoying asymptotic Gaussianity and efficiency. As all models are wrong, it is desirable to understand these estimators' behaviours…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-10 Elliot H. Young , Rajen D. Shah

Assume we are given a set of items from a general metric space, but we neither have access to the representation of the data nor to the distances between data points. Instead, suppose that we can actively choose a triplet of items (A,B,C)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-19 Siavash Haghiri , Damien Garreau , Ulrike von Luxburg

This study considers various semiparametric difference-in-differences models under different assumptions on the relation between the treatment group identifier, time and covariates for cross-sectional and panel data. The variance lower…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-08-17 Michael Zimmert

We study semiparametric inference in some linear regression models with time-varying coefficients, dependent regressors and dependent errors. This problem, which has been considered recently by Zhang and Wu (2012) under the functional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-19 Lionel Truquet

Irregular functional data in which densely sampled curves are observed over different ranges pose a challenge for modeling and inference, and sensitivity to outlier curves is a concern in applications. Motivated by applications in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-14 Yeonjoo Park , Xiaohui Chen , Douglas G. Simpson

We seek decision rules for prediction-time cost reduction, where complete data is available for training, but during prediction-time, each feature can only be acquired for an additional cost. We propose a novel random forest algorithm to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-02-23 Feng Nan , Joseph Wang , Venkatesh Saligrama

Random forest (RF) stands out as a highly favored machine learning approach for classification problems. The effectiveness of RF hinges on two key factors: the accuracy of individual trees and the diversity among them. In this study, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Ye-eun Kim , Seoung Yun Kim , Hyunjoong Kim

Federated learning of causal estimands offers a powerful strategy to improve estimation efficiency by leveraging data from multiple study sites while preserving privacy. Existing literature has primarily focused on the average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-24 Siqi Cao , Shu Yang

We provide a semi-parametric analysis for the proportional likelihood ratio model, proposed by Luo & Tsai (2012). We study the tangent spaces for both the parameter of interest and the nuisance parameter, and obtain an explicit expression…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-15 Yair Goldberg , Malka Gorfine

In this paper, we propose semiparametric efficient estimators of genetic relatedness between two traits in a model-free framework. Most existing methods require specifying certain parametric models involving the traits and genetic variants.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-05 Xu Guo , Yiyuan Qian , Hongwei Shi , Weichao Yang , Niwen Zhou

In this work, we present a random forest framework that learns the weights, shapes, and sparsities of feature representations for real-time semantic segmentation. Typical filters (kernels) have predetermined shapes and sparsities and learn…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-06-26 Byeongkeun Kang , Truong Q. Nguyen

Machine learning (ML) algorithms become increasingly important in the analysis of astronomical data. However, since most ML algorithms are not designed to take data uncertainties into account, ML based studies are mostly restricted to data…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-12-26 Itamar Reis , Dalya Baron , Sahar Shahaf

Random forests have proven to be reliable predictive algorithms in many application areas. Not much is known, however, about the statistical properties of random forests. Several authors have established conditions under which their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-05 Stefan Wager

In surveys, the interest lies in estimating finite population parameters such as population totals and means. In most surveys, some auxiliary information is available at the estimation stage. This information may be incorporated in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-23 Mehdi Dagdoug , Camelia Goga , David Haziza

Cluster-randomized experiments are increasingly used to evaluate interventions in routine practice conditions, and researchers often adopt model-based methods with covariate adjustment in the statistical analyses. However, the validity of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-08 Bingkai Wang , Chan Park , Dylan S. Small , Fan Li

We develop new semiparametric methods for estimating treatment effects. We focus on settings where the outcome distributions may be thick tailed, where treatment effects may be small, where sample sizes are large and where assignment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-24 Susan Athey , Peter J. Bickel , Aiyou Chen , Guido W. Imbens , Michael Pollmann