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This article describes an efficient procedure for computing approximate confidence levels for searches for new particles where the expected signal and background levels are small enough to require the use of Poisson statistics. The results…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2008-11-26 Thomas Junk

How can we draw trustworthy scientific conclusions? One criterion is that a study can be replicated by independent teams. While replication is critically important, it is arguably insufficient. If a study is biased for some reason and other…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-06 Yujin Jeong , Dominik Rothenhäusler

We present new results for consistency of maximum likelihood estimators with a focus on multivariate mixed models. Our theory builds on the idea of using subsets of the full data to establish consistency of estimators based on the full…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-13 Karl Oskar Ekvall , Galin L. Jones

Quality assessments of models in unsupervised learning and clustering verification in particular have been a long-standing problem in the machine learning research. The lack of robust and universally applicable cluster validity scores often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-30 Luzie Helfmann , Johannes von Lindheim , Mattes Mollenhauer , Ralf Banisch

Automatically evaluating the coherence of summaries is of great significance both to enable cost-efficient summarizer evaluation and as a tool for improving coherence by selecting high-scoring candidate summaries. While many different…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-09-16 Julius Steen , Katja Markert

Expert estimation of objects takes place when there are no benchmark values of object weights, but these weights still have to be defined. That is why it is problematic to define the efficiency of expert estimation methods. We propose to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-13 Sergii Kadenko , Vitaliy Tsyganok

Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Emily Black , Klas Leino , Matt Fredrikson

In this paper we propose and develop a relatively simple and efficient approach for estimating unknown elements of a user-rating matrix in the context of a recommender system (RS). The critical theoretical property of the method is its…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Jeffrey Uhlmann

Pairwise comparison matrices often exhibit inconsistency, therefore many indices have been suggested to measure their deviation from a consistent matrix. A set of axioms has been proposed recently that is required to be satisfied by any…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-05-28 László Csató

When the number of subjects, $n$, is large, paired comparisons are often sparse. Here, we study statistical inference in a class of paired comparison models parameterized by a set of merit parameters, under an Erd\"{o}s--R\'{e}nyi…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-17 Qiuping Wang , Lu Pan , Ting Yan

Low-rank matrix approximations are often used to help scale standard machine learning algorithms to large-scale problems. Recently, matrix coherence has been used to characterize the ability to extract global information from a subset of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-09-07 Mehryar Mohri , Ameet Talwalkar

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

Consider multiple experts with overlapping expertise working on a classification problem under uncertain input. What constitutes a consistent set of opinions? How can we predict the opinions of experts on missing sub-domains? In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Bijan Mazaheri , Siddharth Jain , Jehoshua Bruck

A popular method for selecting the number of clusters is based on stability arguments: one chooses the number of clusters such that the corresponding clustering results are "most stable". In recent years, a series of papers has analyzed the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-07-08 Ulrike von Luxburg

When scholars suspect units are dependent on each other within clusters but independent of each other across clusters, they employ cluster-robust standard errors (CRSEs). Nevertheless, what to cluster over is sometimes unknown. For…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-12 Kentaro Fukumoto

Aligning large language models with expert judgment is especially difficult in subjective evaluation tasks, where experts may disagree, rely on tacit criteria, and change their judgments over time. In this paper, we study expert alignment…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Tzu-Mi Lin , Wataru Hirota , Tatsuya Ishigaki , Lung-Hao Lee , Chung-Chi Chen

Analyzing the consistency of preferences is an important step in decision making with pairwise comparison matrices, and several indices have been proposed in order to estimate it. In this paper we prove the proportionality between some…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-03-30 Matteo Brunelli , Andrew Critch , Michele Fedrizzi

We investigate whether experts possess differential expertise when making predictions. We note that this would make it possible to aggregate multiple predictions into a result that is more accurate than their consensus average, and that the…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2018-06-19 Amir Ban , Yishay Mansour

Consistency, defined as the requirement that a series of measurements of the same project carried out by different raters using the same method should produce similar results, is one of the most important aspects to be taken into account in…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2007-05-23 R. Asensio Monge , F. Sanchis Marco , F. Torre Cervigon

Deep learning classifiers are assisting humans in making decisions and hence the user's trust in these models is of paramount importance. Trust is often a function of constant behavior. From an AI model perspective it means given the same…