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One of the most common problems preventing the application of prediction models in the real world is lack of generalization: The accuracy of models, measured in the benchmark does repeat itself on future data, e.g. in the settings of real…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Abdel Aziz Taha , Leonhard Hennig , Petr Knoth

With the widespread success of deep neural networks in science and technology, it is becoming increasingly important to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions produced by deep learning. In this paper, we introduce a new method that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Qingyang Wu , He Li , Lexin Li , Zhou Yu

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps to make trustworthy predictions based on collected observations and uncertain domain knowledge. With increased usage of deep learning in various applications, the need for efficient UQ methods that can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-09 Olga Graf , Pablo Flores , Pavlos Protopapas , Karim Pichara

COVID-19, due to its accelerated spread has brought in the need to use assistive tools for faster diagnosis in addition to typical lab swab testing. Chest X-Rays for COVID cases tend to show changes in the lungs such as ground glass…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-27 Gayathiri Murugamoorthy , Naimul Khan

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-14 Abhineet Agarwal , Michael Xiao , Rebecca Barter , Omer Ronen , Boyu Fan , Bin Yu

AI predictive systems are increasingly embedded in decision making pipelines, shaping high stakes choices once made solely by humans. Yet robust decisions under uncertainty still rely on capabilities that current AI lacks: domain knowledge…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Sima Noorani , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

In a world where more decisions are made using artificial intelligence, it is of utmost importance to ensure these decisions are well-grounded. Neural networks are the modern building blocks for artificial intelligence. Modern neural…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Mohamad Al Shaar , Nils Ekström , Gustav Gille , Reza Rezvan , Ivan Wely

Uncertainty estimation methods using deep learning approaches strive against separating how uncertain the state of the world manifests to us via measurement (objective end) from the way this gets scrambled with the model specification and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-21 Edgardo Solano-Carrillo

Uncertainty calibration is crucial for various machine learning applications, yet it remains challenging. Many models exhibit hallucinations - confident yet inaccurate responses - due to miscalibrated confidence. Here, we show that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Jeonghwan Cheon , Se-Bum Paik

Machine learning can significantly improve performance for decision-making under uncertainty across a wide range of domains. However, ensuring robustness guarantees requires well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, which can be difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Christopher Yeh , Nicolas Christianson , Alan Wu , Adam Wierman , Yisong Yue

Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-01 Agustinus Kristiadi , Sina Däubener , Asja Fischer

Despite the recent improvements in overall accuracy, deep learning systems still exhibit low levels of robustness. Detecting possible failures is critical for a successful clinical integration of these systems, where each data point…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-10-14 Alain Jungo , Mauricio Reyes

Reliable uncertainty quantification in trajectory prediction is crucial for safety-critical autonomous driving systems, yet existing deep learning predictors lack uncertainty-aware frameworks adaptable to heterogeneous real-world scenarios.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Yiming Shu , Jiahui Xu , Linghuan Kong , Fangni Zhang , Guodong Yin , Chen Sun

Neural networks (NNs) can achieved high performance in various fields such as computer vision, and natural language processing. However, deploying NNs in resource-constrained safety-critical systems has challenges due to uncertainty in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Soyed Tuhin Ahmed

In the past decades, most work in the area of data analysis and machine learning was focused on optimizing predictive models and getting better results than what was possible with existing models. To what extent the metrics with which such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-06 Nicolas Dewolf

Machine learning has achieved remarkable successes, yet its deployment in safety-critical domains remains hindered by an inherent inability to manage uncertainty, resulting in overconfident and unreliable predictions when models encounter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal

Bringing deep neural networks (DNNs) into safety critical applications such as automated driving, medical imaging and finance, requires a thorough treatment of the model's uncertainties. Training deep neural networks is already resource…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-31 Julian Burghoff , Robin Chan , Hanno Gottschalk , Annika Muetze , Tobias Riedlinger , Matthias Rottmann , Marius Schubert

Existing methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks are either computationally intractable for large language models or require access to training data that is typically unavailable. We derive a lightweight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Nils Grünefeld , Jes Frellsen , Christian Hardmeier

Deep Learning (DL) has made remarkable achievements in computer vision and adopted in safety critical domains such as medical imaging or autonomous drive. Thus, it is necessary to understand the uncertainty of the model to effectively…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Hyekyoung Hwang , Jitae Shin

Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds the potential to dramatically improve patient care. However, it is not infallible, necessitating human-AI-collaboration to ensure safe implementation. One aspect of AI safety is the models' ability to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Anna M. Wundram , Christian F. Baumgartner