Related papers: Forecasting and decisions in the birth-death-suppr…

Birth and death Markov processes can model stochastic physical systems from percolation to disease spread and, in particular, wildfires. We introduce and analyze a birth-death-suppression Markov process as a model of controlled culling of…

Wildfires pose an increasing threat to the safety and reliability of power systems, particularly in distribution networks located in fire-prone regions. To mitigate ignition risk from electrical infrastructure, utilities often employ safety…

Wildfire is an important system process of the earth that occurs across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. A variety of methods have been used to predict wildfire phenomena during the past century to better our understanding of…

Recent wildfires in the United States have resulted in loss of life and billions of dollars, destroying countless structures and forests. Fighting wildfires is extremely complex. It is difficult to observe the true state of fires due to…

Intense wildfire seasons require critical prioritization decisions to allocate scarce suppression resources over a dispersed geographical area. This paper develops a predictive and prescriptive approach to jointly optimize crew assignments…

Wildfires cause major losses worldwide, and the frequency of fire-weather conditions is likely to increase in many regions. We study the allocation of suppression resources over time on a graph-based representation of a landscape to slow…

Forest-savanna bistability - the hypothesis that forests and savannas exist as alternative stable states in the tropics - and its implications are key challenges for mathematical modelers and ecologists in the context of ongoing climate…

Wildfires can severely damage electricity grids leading to long periods of power interruption. Climate change will exacerbate this threat by increasing the frequency of dry climate conditions. Under these climate conditions, human-related…

Wildfires are natural disasters capable of damaging economies and communities. When wildfires become uncontrollable, Incident Manager Teams (IMT's) dispatch response vehicles to key assets to undertake protective tasks and so mitigate the…

Understanding the dynamics of wildfire is crucial for developing management and intervention strategies. Mathematical and computational models can be used to improve our understanding of wildfire processes and dynamics. This paper presents…

This study presents a probabilistic surrogate model for localized wildfire spread based on a conditional flow matching algorithm. The approach models fire progression as a stochastic process by learning the conditional distribution of fire…

Due to climate change, the extreme wildfire has become one of the most dangerous natural hazards to human civilization. Even though, some wildfires may be initially caused by human activity, but the spread of wildfires is mainly determined…

We consider a continuous time Markov process on $\mathbb{N}_0$ which can be interpreted as generalized alternating birth-death process in a non-autonomous random environment. Depending on the status of the environment the process either…

In this paper we introduce a class of Markov decision processes that arise as a natural model for many renewable resource allocation problems. Upon extending results from the inventory control literature, we prove that they admit a closed…

We use a classical combinatorial inequality to establish a Markov inequality for multivariate binary Markov processes on trees. We then apply this result, alongside with the FKG inequality, to compare the expected loss of biodiversity under…

This paper proposes a new formulation for the dynamic resource allocation problem, which converts the traditional MDP model with known parameters and no capacity constraints to a new model with uncertain parameters and a resource capacity…

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially…

The understanding and prediction of large wildland fire events around the world is a growing interdisciplinary research area advanced rapidly by development and use of computational models. Recent models bidirectionally couple computational…

Accurate spatiotemporal modeling of conditions leading to moderate and large wildfires provides better understanding of mechanisms driving fire-prone ecosystems and improves risk management. We here develop a joint model for the occurrence…

We study a Markov birth-and-death process on a space of locally finite configurations, which describes an ecological model with a density dependent fecundity regulation mechanism. We establish existence and uniqueness of this process and…