Related papers: Stochastic variance-reduced Gaussian variational i…
We develop a framework for generalized variational inference in infinite-dimensional function spaces and use it to construct a method termed Gaussian Wasserstein inference (GWI). GWI leverages the Wasserstein distance between Gaussian…
For random variables produced through the inverse transform method, approximate random variables are introduced, which are produced by approximations to a distribution's inverse cumulative distribution function. These approximations are…
A technique for reducing the number of integrals in a Monte Carlo calculation is introduced. For integrations relying on classical or mean-field trajectories with local weighting functions, it is possible to integrate analytically at least…
Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…
We consider the problem of constructing a least conservative estimator of the expected value $\mu$ of a non-negative heavy-tailed random variable. We require that the probability of overestimating the expected value $\mu$ is kept…
We study the problem of reducing the variance of Monte Carlo estimators through performing suitable changes of the sampling measure which are induced by feedforward neural networks. To this end, building on the concept of vector stochastic…
Bayesian optimization (BO) has shown impressive results in a variety of applications within low-to-moderate dimensional Euclidean spaces. However, extending BO to high-dimensional settings remains a significant challenge. We address this…
Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…
The Bayesian inversion method demonstrates significant potential for solving inverse problems, enabling both point estimation and uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation may become unstable…
Monte Carlo integration is typically interpreted as an estimator of the expected value using stochastic samples. There exists an alternative interpretation in calculus where Monte Carlo integration can be seen as estimating a…
In this work we propose a generalization of the Moment Guided Monte Carlo method developed in [11]. This approach permits to reduce the variance of the particle methods through a matching with a set of suitable macroscopic moment equations.…
Mean-field variational inference is a method for approximate Bayesian posterior inference. It approximates a full posterior distribution with a factorized set of distributions by maximizing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood. This…
Variational inference is an umbrella term for algorithms which cast Bayesian inference as optimization. Classically, variational inference uses the Kullback-Leibler divergence to define the optimization. Though this divergence has been…
We establish a general framework to study the rate of convergence of a Euler type approximation scheme with decreasing time steps to the invariant measure, for a general class of stochastic systems. The error is measured in general…
The quantity of interest in the classical Cram\'er-Rao theory of unbiased estimation (e.g., the Cram\'er-Rao lower bound, its exact attainment for exponential families, and asymptotic efficiency of maximum likelihood estimation) is the…
Stochastic estimators are fundamental to large-scale optimization, where population quantities must be inferred from noisy oracle observations. Although influential methods such as momentum, SPIDER, STORM, and PAGE have been highly…
The inefficiency of using an unbiased estimator in a Monte Carlo procedure can be quantified using an inefficiency constant, equal to the product of the variance of the estimator and its mean computational cost. We develop methods for…
We introduce a new class of Monte Carlo based approximations of expectations of random variables such that their laws are only available via certain discretizations. Sampling from the discretized versions of these laws can typically…
This paper considers the problem of regression over distributions, which is becoming increasingly important in machine learning. Existing approaches often ignore the geometry of the probability space or are computationally expensive. To…
This article considers a stable vector autoregressive (VAR) model and investigates return predictability in a Bayesian context. The VAR system comprises asset returns and the dividend-price ratio as proposed in Cochrane (2008), and allows…