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The idea of covariate balance is at the core of causal inference. Inverse propensity weights play a central role because they are the unique set of weights that balance the covariate distributions of different treatment groups. We discuss…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-29 Eli Ben-Michael , Avi Feller , David A. Hirshberg , José R. Zubizarreta

Estimation and inference for the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a cornerstone of causal inference and often serves as the foundation for developing procedures for more complicated settings. Although traditionally analyzed in a batch…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-10 Ojash Neopane , Aaditya Ramdas , Aarti Singh

Treatment-induced confounders complicate analyses of time-varying treatment effects and causal mediation. Conditioning on these variables naively to estimate marginal effects may inappropriately block causal pathways and may induce spurious…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-24 Geoffrey T. Wodtke , Zahide Alaca , Xiang Zhou

The crosswise model is an increasingly popular survey technique to elicit candid answers from respondents on sensitive questions. Recent studies, however, point out that in the presence of inattentive respondents, the conventional estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-21 Yuki Atsusaka , Randolph T. Stevenson

Missing confounders are common in observational studies and present fundamental challenges for causal effect estimation by weakening identification and increasing sensitivity to model misspecification. Within the missing-indicator…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-23 Md. Shaddam Hossain Bagmar , Hua Shen

Imputing missing potential outcomes using an estimated regression function is a natural idea for estimating causal effects. In the literature, estimators that combine imputation and regression adjustments are believed to be comparable to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-20 Zhexiao Lin , Fang Han

The inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach is commonly used in propensity score analysis to infer causal effects in regression models. Due to oversized IPTW weights and errors associated with propensity score estimation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-02 Tenglong Li , Jordan Lawson

The growing availability of large health databases has expanded the use of observational studies for comparative effectiveness research. Unlike randomized trials, observational studies must adjust for systematic differences in patient…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Haidong Lu , Fan Li , Laine E. Thomas , Fan Li

We revisit the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect (LATE) and the local average treatment effect on the treated (LATT) when control variables are available, either to render the instrumental variable (IV) suitably…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-11-16 Tymon Słoczyński , S. Derya Uysal , Jeffrey M. Wooldridge

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide strong internal validity compared with observational studies. However, selection bias threatens the external validity of randomized trials. Thus, RCT results may not apply to either broad public…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-26 Ziyue Chen , Eloise Kaizar

In many observational studies in social science and medicine, subjects or units are connected, and one unit's treatment and attributes may affect another's treatment and outcome, violating the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA)…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Zhaonan Qu , Ruoxuan Xiong , Jizhou Liu , Guido Imbens

In the presence of sufficiently weak overlap, it is known that no regular root-n-consistent estimators exist and standard estimators may fail to be asymptotically normal. This paper shows that a thresholded version of the standard doubly…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-23 Jacob Dorn

Instrumental variables have been widely used to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome. Existing confidence intervals for causal effects based on instrumental variables assume that all of the putative instrumental variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-14 Hyunseung Kang , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

There is a growing interest in estimating heterogeneous treatment effects across individuals using their high-dimensional feature attributes. Achieving high performance in such high-dimensional heterogeneous treatment effect estimation is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-04 Yoichi Chikahara , Kansei Ushiyama

Mendelian randomization (MR) has become a popular approach to study the effect of a modifiable exposure on an outcome by using genetic variants as instrumental variables. A challenge in MR is that each genetic variant explains a relatively…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-13 Ting Ye , Jun Shao , Hyunseung Kang

In longitudinal observational studies, marginal structural models (MSMs) are a class of causal models used to analyse the effect of an exposure on the (time-to-event) outcome of interest, while accounting for exposure-affected…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Marta Spreafico

Learning optimal policies from historical data enables personalization in a wide variety of applications including healthcare, digital recommendations, and online education. The growing policy learning literature focuses on settings where…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-17 Ruohan Zhan , Zhimei Ren , Susan Athey , Zhengyuan Zhou

Conformal prediction (CP) provides powerful, distribution-free prediction sets, but its guarantees rely on the exchangeability of training and test data, which is often violated in practice due to covariate shifts. While weighted conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 James Wang , Surbhi Goel

Subsampling techniques can reduce the computational costs of processing big data. Practical subsampling plans typically involve initial uniform sampling and refined sampling. With a subsample, big data inferences are generally built on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-13 Yan Fan , Yang Liu , Yukun Liu , Jing Qin

Selecting powerful predictors for an outcome is a cornerstone task for machine learning. However, some types of questions can only be answered by identifying the predictors that causally affect the outcome. A recent approach to this causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Guillaume Martinet , Alexander Strzalkowski , Barbara E. Engelhardt