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This article is a reproduction of a Fraunhofer ITWM report from 28 June 2021 on the contribution of various non-pharmaceutical measures in breaking the 3rd Corona wave in Germany. The main finding is that testing contributed more to the…
Motivated by chemical reaction rules, we introduce a rule-based epidemiological framework for the systematic mathematical modelling of future pandemics. Here we stress that we do not have a specific model in mind, but a whole collection of…
We propose a kinetic model for understanding the link between opinion formation phenomena and epidemic dynamics. The recent pandemic has brought to light that vaccine hesitancy can present different phases and temporal and spatial…
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for quantitative modeling and analysis to understand real-world disease dynamics. In particular, post hoc analyses using compartmental models offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of…
The results of an alternative methodology for making predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece are presented. Instead of focusing on the various population profiles (subjected to instabilities introduced by the fitting process),…
Accurate forecasts of COVID-19 is central to resource management and building strategies to deal with the epidemic. We propose a heterogeneous infection rate model with human mobility for epidemic modeling, a preliminary version of which we…
Recent outbreaks of infectious diseases have been monitored closely from an epidemiological and microbiological perspective. Extracting from this wealth of data the information that is relevant for the evolution of the pathogen and predict…
We investigate the mechanisms behind the quasi-periodic outbursts on the Covid-19 epidemics. Data for France and Germany show that the patterns of outbursts exhibit a qualitative change in early 2022, which appears in a change in their…
Infectious diseases that incorporate pre-symptomatic transmission are challenging to monitor, model, predict and contain. We address this scenario by studying a variant of a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model on…
Although previous infection and vaccination provide protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, both reinfection and breakthrough infection are possible events whose occurrence would increase with time after first exposure to the antigen and…
Background: Recently, a high number of daily positive COVID-19 cases have been reported in regions with relatively high vaccination rates; hence, booster vaccination has become necessary. In addition, infections caused by the different…
Some of the key questions of interest during the COVID-19 pandemic (and all outbreaks) include: where did the disease start, how is it spreading, who is at risk, and how to control the spread. There are a large number of complex factors…
This study presents a novel approach at the intersection of genomic analysis and artificial intelligence (AI) to predict viral mutations and assess the risks of future pandemics. Through comprehensive genomic analysis, genetic markers…
The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most pressing issues at present. A question which is particularly important for governments and policy makers is the following: Does the virus spread in the same way in different countries? Or are there…
The spreading dynamics of infectious diseases is influenced by individual behaviours, which are in turn affected by the level of awareness about the epidemic. Modelling the co-evolution of disease transmission and behavioural changes within…
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently…
The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has affected millions of individuals around the world and has posed a significant challenge to global healthcare. From the early days of the pandemic, it became clear that it is highly contagious and that…
I develop a novel macroeconomic epidemiological agent-based model to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic under varying policy scenarios. Agents differ with regard to their profession, family status and age and interact with other…
A pandemic poses particular challenges to decision-making because of the need to continuously adapt decisions to rapidly changing evidence and available data. For example, which countermeasures are appropriate at a particular stage of the…
As the outbreak of COVID-19 enters its third year, we have now enough data to analyse the behavior of the pandemic with mathematical models over a long period of time. The pandemic alternates periods of high and low infections, in a way…