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Non-technical losses (NTL) such as electricity theft cause significant harm to our economies, as in some countries they may range up to 40% of the total electricity distributed. Detecting NTLs requires costly on-site inspections. Accurate…
We propose a non-parametric variant of binary regression, where the hypothesis is regularized to be a Lipschitz function taking a metric space to [0,1] and the loss is logarithmic. This setting presents novel computational and statistical…
In the paper we study dependence of long run functionals and limit characteristics assuming that Borel measurable Markov controls converge pointwise. We consider two kinds of functionals: average cost per unit time and long run risk…
We construct a general stochastic process and prove weak convergence results. It is scaled in space and through the parameters of its distribution. We show that our simplified scaling is equivalent to time scaling used frequently. The…
Decisions taken in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market therefore provides a rich environment to study how people take…
Most high-dimensional estimation and prediction methods propose to minimize a cost function (empirical risk) that is written as a sum of losses associated to each data point. In this paper we focus on the case of non-convex losses, which is…
Ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimators for a linear model are very sensitive to unusual values in the design space or outliers among y values. Even one single atypical value may have a large effect on the parameter estimates. This article…
Financial markets are prominent examples for highly non-stationary systems. Sample averaged observables such as variances and correlation coefficients strongly depend on the time window in which they are evaluated. This implies severe…
We consider a general monotone regression estimation where we allow for independent and dependent regressors. We propose a modification of the classical isotonic least squares estimator and establish its rate of convergence for the…
We study prediction and estimation problems using empirical risk minimization, relative to a general convex loss function. We obtain sharp error rates even when concentration is false or is very restricted, for example, in heavy-tailed…
A market with asymmetric information can be viewed as a repeated exchange game between the informed sector and the uninformed one. In a market with risk-neutral agents, De Meyer [2010] proves that the price process should be a particular…
We study the problem of optimally managing an inventory with unknown demand trend. Our formulation leads to a stochastic control problem under partial observation, in which a Brownian motion with non-observable drift can be singularly…
The statistical properties of a stochastic process may be described (1)by the expectation values of the observables, (2)by the probability distribution functions or (3)by probability measures on path space. Here an analysis of level (3) is…
We investigate the predictability of several range-based stock volatility estimators, and compare them to the standard close-to-close estimator which is most commonly acknowledged as the volatility. The patterns of volatility changes are…
Covariate shift relaxes the widely-employed independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption by allowing different training and testing input distributions. Unfortunately, common methods for addressing covariate shift by trying to…
Inverse probability weighting (IPW) methods are commonly used to analyze non-ignorable missing data under the assumption of a logistic model for the missingness probability. However, solving IPW equations numerically may involve…
This paper presents the Fourier-Malliavin Volatility (FMVol) estimation library for MATLAB. This library includes functions that implement Fourier- Malliavin estimators (see Malliavin and Mancino (2002, 2009)) of the volatility and…
Interpreting black-box machine learning models is challenging due to their strong dependence on data and inherently non-parametric nature. This paper reintroduces the concept of importance through "Marginal Variable Importance Metric"…
We consider a structural stochastic volatility model for the loss from a large portfolio of credit risky assets. Both the asset value and the volatility processes are correlated through systemic Brownian motions, with default determined by…
While the real world is inherently stochastic, Large Language Models (LLMs) are predominantly evaluated on single-round inference against fixed ground truths. In this work, we shift the lens to distribution alignment: assessing whether…