Related papers: Posterior Conformal Prediction
Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has…
Conformal prediction delivers prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage, but its intervals can look overconfident in regions where the model is extrapolating, because standard conformal scores do not explicitly represent…
Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…
Conformal prediction (CP) can convert any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with any user-specified probability. However, same as the model itself, CP is vulnerable to adversarial test examples…
This paper introduces Conformal Thresholded Intervals (CTI), a novel conformal regression method that aims to produce the smallest possible prediction set with guaranteed coverage. Unlike existing methods that rely on nested conformal…
Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies.…
Conformal predictors are machine learning algorithms that output prediction sets that have a guarantee of marginal validity for finite samples with minimal distributional assumptions. This is a property that makes conformal predictors…
Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…
The conformalClassification package implements Transductive Conformal Prediction (TCP) and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for classification problems. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a framework that complements the predictions of…
We give a simple, generic conformal prediction method for sequential prediction that achieves target empirical coverage guarantees against adversarially chosen data. It is computationally lightweight -- comparable to split conformal…
Conformal predictive systems allow forecasters to issue predictive distributions for real-valued future outcomes that have out-of-sample calibration guarantees. On a more abstract level, conformal prediction makes use of in-sample…
Estimating the reliability of individual predictions is key to increase the adoption of computational models and artificial intelligence in preclinical drug discovery, as well as to foster its application to guide decision making in…
Conformal prediction (CP) generates a set of predictions for a given test sample such that the prediction set almost always contains the true label (e.g., 99.5\% of the time). CP provides comprehensive predictions on possible labels of a…
Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…
Conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage under exchangeability, but standard constructions may lack robustness in the presence of outliers or heavy tails. We propose a robust conformal method based on a…
Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…
Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a widely used technique for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models. In its standard form, CP offers probabilistic guarantees on the coverage of the true label, but it is agnostic to sensitive…
Conformal Prediction is a machine learning methodology that produces valid prediction regions under mild conditions. In this paper, we explore the application of making predictions over multiple data sources of different sizes without…
Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…