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Robust estimation for modern portfolio selection on a large set of assets becomes more important due to large deviation of empirical inference on big data. We propose a distributionally robust methodology for high-dimensional mean-variance…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-12 Ruike Wu , Yanrong Yang , Han Lin Shang , Huanjun Zhu

Specifying a proper input distribution is often a challenging task in simulation modeling. In practice, there may be multiple plausible distributions that can fit the input data reasonably well, especially when the data volume is not large.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-15 Weiwei Fan , L. Jeff Hong , Xiaowei Zhang

Decision making under uncertain environments in the maximization of expected reward while minimizing its risk is one of the ubiquitous problems in many subjects. Here, we introduce a novel problem setting in stochastic bandit optimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Shunta Nonaga , Koji Tabata , Yuta Mizuno , Tamiki Komatsuzaki

This paper studies robust forward investment and consumption preferences within a zero-volatility context. Different from previous works, we consider an incomplete financial market model due to general investment portfolio constraints. We…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-20 Wing Fung Chong , Gechun Liang

This paper provides a non-robust interpretation of the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem by relating the distributional uncertainties to the chance probabilities. Our analysis allows a decision-maker to interpret the size…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Qi Wu , Shumin Ma , Cheuk Hang Leung , Wei Liu , Nanbo Peng

The classical mean-variance portfolio selection problem induces time-inconsistent (precommited) strategies (see Zhou and Li (2000)). To overcome this time-inconsistency, Basak and Chabakauri (2010) introduce the game theoretical approach…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-26 Mengge Li , Shuaijie Qian , Chao Zhou

This paper examines a continuous time intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem with a stochastic differential utility preference of Epstein-Zin type for a robust investor, who worries about model misspecification and seeks…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-03-09 Jiangyan Pu , Qi Zhang

Decision making under uncertainty is challenging since the data-generating process (DGP) is often unknown. Bayesian inference proceeds by estimating the DGP through posterior beliefs about the model's parameters. However, minimising the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-06 Charita Dellaporta , Patrick O'Hara , Theodoros Damoulas

Sequential portfolio selection has attracted increasing interests in the machine learning and quantitative finance communities in recent years. As a mathematical framework for reinforcement learning policies, the stochastic multi-armed…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-14 Xiaoguang Huo , Feng Fu

This work initiates research into the problem of determining an optimal investment strategy for investors with different attitudes towards the trade-offs of risk and profit. The probability distribution of the return values of the stocks…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Ming-Yang Kao , Andreas Nolte , Stephen R. Tate

We study a problem of finding an optimal stopping strategy to liquidate an asset with unknown drift. Taking a Bayesian approach, we model the initial beliefs of an individual about the drift parameter by allowing an arbitrary probability…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-09-03 Erik Ekström , Juozas Vaicenavicius

Distributionally Robust Optimisation (DRO) protects risk-averse decision-makers by considering the worst-case risk within an ambiguity set of distributions based on the empirical distribution or a model. To further guard against finite,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Charita Dellaporta , Patrick O'Hara , Theodoros Damoulas

We study an open problem of risk-sensitive portfolio allocation in a regime-switching credit market with default contagion. The state space of the Markovian regime-switching process is assumed to be a countably infinite set. To characterize…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-25 Lijun Bo , Huafu Liao , Xiang Yu

We solve a min-max problem in a robust exploratory mean-variance problem with drift uncertainty in this paper. It is verified that robust investors choose the Sharpe ratio with minimal $L^2$ norm in an admissible set. A reinforcement…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-08-10 Chenchen Mou , Weiwei Zhang , Chao Zhou

A classical portfolio theory deals with finding the optimal proportion in which an agent invests a wealth in a risk-free asset and a probabilistic risky asset. Formulating and solving the problem depend on how the risk is represented and…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-28 Irina Georgescu , Jani Kinnunen

Recoverable robust optimization is a multi-stage approach, where it is possible to adjust a first-stage solution after the uncertain cost scenario is revealed. We analyze this approach for a class of selection problems. The aim is to choose…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-02-22 Marc Goerigk , Stefan Lendl , Lasse Wulf

In this paper, we develop a two-stage data-driven approach to address the adjustable robust optimization problem, where the uncertainty set is adjustable to manage infeasibility caused by significant or poorly quantified uncertainties. In…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-29 Xiaoxing Ren , Alessio Moreschini , Zhongda Chu , Yulong Gao , Thomas Parisini

This paper explores the mean-variance portfolio selection problem in a multi-period financial market characterized by regime-switching dynamics and uncontrollable liabilities. To address the uncertainty in the decision-making process within…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-04 Zhongqin Gao , Ping Chen , Xun Li , Yan Lv , Wenhao Zhang

In practice, one must recognize the inevitable incompleteness of information while making decisions. In this paper, we consider the optimal redeeming problem of stock loans under a state of incomplete information presented by the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-07 Zuo Quan Xu , Fahuai Yi

Managing insurance and financial risk when data is limited is a key task in the insurance industry. In this paper, we focus on cases where the risk distribution is modeled as a mixture with some components estimable to high precision or…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-03 N. D. Shyamalkumar , Tianrun Wang