Related papers: Forecasting Energy Needs with Logistics
Damped-driven systems are ubiquitous in engineering and science. Despite the diversity of physical processes observed in a broad range of applications, the underlying instabilities observed in practice have a universal characterization…
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change proposes different mitigation strategies to achieve the net emissions reductions that would be required to follow a pathway that limits global warming to 1.5{\deg}C with no or limited overshoot.…
Due to increased energy demand and environmental concerns such as greenhouse gas emissions and natural resources depletion, optimizing energy and raw materials usage has recently drawn much attention. Achieving more synergy between…
Land-use conflicts may constrain the unprecedented rates of renewable energy deployment required to meet the decarbonization goals of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This paper employs geospatially resolved data and a detailed…
Oil prices above $100/barrel values have proven unaffordable for the world economy, while lower prices have proven unaffordable for unconventional oil sources, resulting in a frantic price swing since 2007-2008. We identify and combine for…
The GDP growth of national economies is modelled by the logistic function. Applying it on the GDP data of the World Bank till the year 2020, we forecast the outcome of the competitive GDP growth of Japan, Germany, UK and India, all of whose…
The balancing provided by hydropower reservoirs is essential in the transition towards a decarbonised European energy system, but the resource might be impacted by future climate change. In this work, we first analyse the hydropower…
The energy transition is also about switching to electricity-based technologies such as heat pumps and electric mobility. They avoid heat as an intermediate step and are therefore much more efficient. This can significantly reduce the…
The production histories of seventeen raw materials are analyzed with the logistic model. Although many of these resources have exhibited logistic behavior in the past, they now show exponential or super-exponential growth. In most cases,…
To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, many countries plan to massively expand wind power and solar photovoltaic capacities. These variable renewable energy sources require additional flexibility in the power sector. Both geographical…
Resource-scale quantification of energy in water supplies is a basis for regional-scale governance of water systems and national- and global-scale assessments of the "water-energy-emission" nexus. But a physically based approach for this…
Equilibrium models for energy markets under uncertain demand and supply have attracted considerable attentions. This paper focuses on modelling crude oil market share under the COVID-19 pandemic using two-stage stochastic equilibrium. We…
A transition to a low-carbon electricity supply is crucial to limit the impacts of climate change. Reducing carbon emissions could help prevent the world from reaching a tipping point, where runaway emissions are likely. Runaway emissions…
As countries develop, the relative importance of agriculture declines and economic activity becomes spatially concentrated. We develop a model integrating structural change and regional disparities to jointly capture these phenomena. A key…
In the course of the energy transition, energy generation from nuclear power - through nuclear fission and perhaps in the future through nuclear fusion - is often proposed as an alternative or supplement to renewable energy sources. There…
The global requirements for energy are increasing rapidly as the global population increases and the under-developed nations become more advanced. The traditional fuels used in their traditional ways will become increasingly unable to meet…
Growth of intermittent renewable energy and climate change make it increasingly difficult to manage electricity demand variability. Centralized storage can help but is costly. An alternative is to shift demand. Cooling and heating demands…
Fossil gas is sometimes presented as an enabler of variable solar and wind generation beyond 2050, despite being a primary source of greenhouse gas emissions from methane leakage and combustion. We find that balancing solar and wind…
We demonstrate the effectiveness of the logistic function to model the evolution of two economic systems. The first is the GDP and trade growth of the USA, and the second is the revenue and human resource growth of IBM. Our modelling is…
Energy has been propelling the development of human civilization for millennia, and technologies acquiring energy beyond human and animal power have been continuously advanced and transformed. In 1964, the Kardashev Scale was proposed to…