Related papers: Forecasting Energy Needs with Logistics
The logistic function is used to forecast energy consumed worldwide. The logistic substitution model is used to describe the energy mix since 1965 presenting a picture significantly different from the one covering the previous 100 years. In…
In part I of this analysis, the striking similarities of the declining oil production in the North Sea, Indonesia and Mexico were used to model the future maximum possible oil production per annum in all larger countries and regions of the…
Renewable energy sources, especially wind energy, are to play a larger role in providing electricity to industrial and domestic consumers. This is already the case today for a number of European countries, closely followed by the US and…
The growing conflicts in and about oil exporting regions and speculations about volatile oil prices during the last decade have renewed the public interest in predictions for the near future oil production and consumption. Unfortunately,…
Wind and solar electricity generation account for 14% of total electricity generation in the United States and are expected to continue to grow in the next decades. In low carbon systems, generation from renewable energy sources displaces…
Greenhouse gases (GHG) trap heat and make the planet warmer, exacerbating global climate change. Energy production is the second largest contributor to climate change [19]. In particular, the production of electricity and use of gas…
This paper introduces a new stochastic diffusion process to model the electricity production from natural gas sources (as a percentage of total electricity production) in the United States. The method employs trend function analysis to…
The emergence of distributed energy resources has led to new challenges in the operation and planning of power networks. Of particular significance is the introduction of a new layer of complexity that manifests in the form of new…
Electricity demand and generation have become increasingly unpredictable with the growing share of variable renewable energy sources in the power system. Forecasting electricity supply by fuel mix is crucial for market operation, ensuring…
This paper studies whether a small set of dominant countries can account for most of the dynamics of regional oil demand and improve forecasting performance. We focus on dominant drivers within the OECD and a broad GVAR sample covering over…
Global historical series spanning the last two centuries recently became available for primary energy consumption (PEC) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Based on a thorough analysis of the data, we propose a new, simple macroeconomic model…
One major hurdle in the road toward a low carbon economy is the present entanglement of developed economies with oil. This tight relationship is mirrored in the correlation between most of economic indicators with oil price. This paper…
Energy has always been the driving force in the technological and economic development of societies. The consumption of a significant amount of energy is required to provide basic living conditions of developed countries (heating,…
Biobased energy, particularly corn starch-based ethanol and other liquid renewable fuels, are a major element of federal and state energy policies in the United States. These policies are motivated by energy security and climate change…
Probabilistic forecasting in combination with stochastic programming is a key tool for handling the growing uncertainties in future energy systems. Derived from a general stochastic programming formulation for the optimal scheduling and…
Intermittent renewable energies are increasingly dominating electricity grids and are forecasted to be the main force driving out fossil fuels from the grid in most major economies until 2040. However, grids based on intermittent renewables…
The offshore oil and natural gas platforms, mostly powered by diesel or gas generators, consume approximately 16TWh of electricity worldwide per year, which emits large amount of CO2. To limit their contribution to climate change, a…
The main advantage of electric vehicles, namely, their non-polluting operation, is compromised when the electricity they use comes from burning fossil fuels. The number of electric vehicles on the road is growing much faster than the amount…
Energy (load, wind, photovoltaic) forecasting is significant in the power industry as it can provide a reference for subsequent tasks such as power grid dispatch, thus bringing huge economic benefits. However, there are many differences…
The urban transition, the increased ratio of urban to rural population globally and within countries, is a hallmark of the 21st century. Our analysis of publicly available data from the World Bank spanning several decades for ~195 countries…