Related papers: Renewal equations for vector-borne diseases
Basic and instantaneous reproduction numbers, "R" _"0" and "R" _"t" , are important metrics to assess progress of an epidemic and effectiveness of preventative interventions undertaken, and also to estimate coverage needed for vaccination.…
Renewal equations are a popular approach used in modelling the number of new infections, i.e., incidence, in an outbreak. We develop a stochastic model of an outbreak based on a time-varying variant of the Crump-Mode-Jagers branching…
When analysing new emerging infectious disease outbreaks one typically has observational data over a limited period of time and several parameters to estimate, such as growth rate, R0, serial or generation interval distribution, latent and…
Since the last century, deterministic compartmental models have emerged as powerful tools to predict and control epidemic outbreaks, in many cases helping to mitigate their impacts. A key quantity for these models is the so-called Basic…
We explore the role of cellular life cycles for viruses and host cells in an infection process. For this purpose, we derive a generalized version of the basic model of virus dynamics (Nowak, M.A., Bangham, C.R.M., 1996. Population dynamics…
Two crucial elements facilitate the understanding and control of communicable disease spread within a social setting. These components are, the underlying contact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease…
At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented in order to reduce transmission, thus leading to multiple phases of transmission. The disease reproduction number $R_t$, a way of…
Multivariate count time series models are an important tool for the analysis and prediction of infectious disease spread. We consider the endemic-epidemic framework, an autoregressive model class for infectious disease surveillance counts,…
This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…
The transmission of vector infectious diseases, which produces complex spatiotemporal patterns, is analyzed by a periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced…
We study an infection-age structured epidemic model in which both the infectivity and the rate of loss of immunity depend on the time-since-infection. The model can be equivalently viewed as a nonlinear renewal equation for the incidence of…
A key problem in modelling the evolution dynamics of infectious diseases is the mathematical representation of the mechanism of transmission of the contagion. Models with a finite number of subpopulations can be described via systems of…
We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…
Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…
We consider multiple diseases spreading in a static Configuration Model network. We make standard assumptions that infection transmits from neighbor to neighbor at a disease-specific rate and infected individuals recover at a…
Undulation of infection levels, usually called waves, are not well understood. In this paper we propose a mathematical model that exhibits undulation and decay towards a stable state. The model is a re-interpretation of the original…
Network epidemiology has become a core framework for investigating the role of human contact patterns in the spreading of infectious diseases. In network epidemiology represents the contact structure as a network of nodes (individuals)…
The effective reproduction number $R_t$ measures an infectious disease's transmissibility as the number of secondary infections in one reproduction time in a population having both susceptible and non-susceptible hosts. Current approaches…
Understanding dynamics of an infectious disease helps in designing appropriate strategies for containing its spread in a population. Recent mathematical models are aimed at studying dynamics of some specific types of infectious diseases. In…
The contact structure between hosts has a critical influence on disease spread. However, most networkbased models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts. This assumption is known to be at odds with…