Related papers: Time-Varying Multi-Seasonal AR Models

This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regression (QR) models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and…

We propose a shrinkage procedure for simultaneous variable selection and estimation in generalized linear models (GLMs) with an explicit predictive motivation. The procedure estimates the coefficients by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler…

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure…

Among the main goals in multiple change point problems are the estimation of the number and positions of the change points, as well as the regime structure in the clusters induced by those changes. The product partition model (PPM) is a…

Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) are typically trained using finite-length Gibbs chains under a fixed sampling temperature. This practice implicitly assumes that the stochastic regime remains valid as the energy landscape evolves during…

Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…

This paper introduces a new kind of seasonal fractional autoregressive process (SFAR) driven by fractional Gaussian noise (fGn). The new model includes a standard seasonal AR model and fGn. {The estimation of the parameters of this new…

This paper explores a time-varying version of weak-form market efficiency that is a key component of the so-called Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). One of the most common methodologies used for modeling and estimating a degree of market…

Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized, particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the…

The steady-state Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) makes it possible to incorporate prior information about the long-run mean of the process. This has been shown in many studies to substantially improve forecasting performance, and the…

Time-varying parameter (TVP) regression models can involve a huge number of coefficients. Careful prior elicitation is required to yield sensible posterior and predictive inferences. In addition, the computational demands of Markov Chain…

We describe spatio-temporal random processes using linear mixed models. We show how many commonly used models can be viewed as special cases of this general framework and pay close attention to models with separable or product-sum…

Multivariate time series are ubiquitous objects in signal processing. Measuring a distance or similarity between two such objects is of prime interest in a variety of applications, including machine learning, but can be very difficult as…

Estimating the statistics of the state of a dynamical system, from partial and noisy observations, is both mathematically challenging and finds wide application. Furthermore, the applications are of great societal importance, including…

Empirical Bayes inference is based on estimation of the parameters of an a priori distribution from the observed data. The estimation technique of the parameters of the prior, called hyperparameters, is based on the marginal distribution…

This paper considers the Linear Minimum Variance recursive state estimation for the linear discrete time dynamic system with random state transition and measurement matrices, i.e., random parameter matrices Kalman filtering. It is shown…

The extended Kalman filter is perhaps the most standard tool to estimate in real time the state of a dynamical system from noisy measurements of some function of the system, with extensive practical applications (such as position tracking…

The use of Gaussian processes (GPs) is supported by efficient sampling algorithms, a rich methodological literature, and strong theoretical grounding. However, due to their prohibitive computation and storage demands, the use of exact GPs…

This work contributes to the development of neural forecasting models with novel randomization-based learning methods. These methods improve the fitting abilities of the neural model, in comparison to the standard method, by generating…

Multivariate time series anomaly detection has numerous real-world applications and is being extensively studied. Modeling pairwise correlations between variables is crucial. Existing methods employ learnable graph structures and graph…