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We provide finite-sample distribution approximations, that are uniform in the parameter, for inference in linear mixed models. Focus is on variances and covariances of random effects in cases where existing theory fails because their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-29 Karl Oskar Ekvall , Matteo Bottai

We present a comparative analysis of several methods, known as local Lagrangian approximations, which are aimed to the description of the nonlinear evolution of large-scale structure. We have investigated various aspects of these…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-06 Martin Makler , Takeshi Kodama , Mauricio O. Calvao

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-18 Alberto Carlevaro , Teodoro Alamo Cantarero , Fabrizio Dabbene , Maurizio Mongelli

We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-13 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

We introduce a new iterative method for computing solutions of elliptic equations with random rapidly oscillating coefficients. Similarly to a multigrid method, each step of the iteration involves different computations meant to address…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-03-31 S. Armstrong , A. Hannukainen , T. Kuusi , J. -C. Mourrat

In this work, we focus on some conditional extreme risk measures estimation for elliptical random vectors. In a previous paper, we proposed a methodology to approximate extreme quantiles, based on two extremal parameters. We thus propose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-26 Antoine Usseglio-Carleve

This paper develops a general theory on rates of convergence of penalized spline estimators for function estimation when the likelihood functional is concave in candidate functions, where the likelihood is interpreted in a broad sense that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-14 Jianhua Z. Huang , Ya Su

We propose a new estimator for the high-dimensional linear regression model with observation error in the design where the number of coefficients is potentially larger than the sample size. The main novelty of our procedure is that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-09 Alexandre Belloni , Abhishek Kaul , Mathieu Rosenbaum

Regression classes modeling more than the mean of the response have found a lot of attention in the last years. Expectile regression is a special and computationally convenient case of this family of models. Expectiles offer a quantile-like…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-19 Elisabeth Waldmann , Fabian Sobotka , Thomas Kneib

In this article we compare solutions to elliptic problems having rapidly oscillated conductivity (permeability, etc) coefficient with solutions to corresponding homogenized problems obtained from two-scale extensions of the initial…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2007-10-11 Vsevolod Laptev

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang

We obtain an asymptotic H\"older estimate for functions satisfying a dynamic programming principle arising from a so-called ellipsoid process. By the ellipsoid process we mean a generalization of the random walk where the next step in the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2020-08-05 Ángel Arroyo , Mikko Parviainen

Estimation problems with constrained parameter spaces arise in various settings. In many of these problems, the observations available to the statistician can be modelled as arising from the noisy realization of the image of a random linear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Reese Pathak , Martin J. Wainwright , Lin Xiao

Randomization testing is a fundamental method in statistics, enabling inferential tasks such as testing for (conditional) independence of random variables, constructing confidence intervals in semiparametric location models, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-21 Yash Nair , Lucas Janson

This paper investigates improved testing inferences under a general multivariate elliptical regression model. The model is very flexible in terms of the specification of the mean vector and the dispersion matrix, and of the choice of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-01 T. F. N. Melo , S. L. P. Ferrari , A. G. Patriota

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-05 Thomas Cook , Alan Mishler , Aaditya Ramdas

Conformal prediction offers a distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. In practice, multiple valid conformal prediction sets may be available, arising from different models or methodologies.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-26 Mahmoud Hegazy , Liviu Aolaritei , Michael I. Jordan , Aymeric Dieuleveut

The perspective of developing trustworthy AI for critical applications in science and engineering requires machine learning techniques that are capable of estimating their own uncertainty. In the context of regression, instead of estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Quentin Duchemin , Guillaume Obozinski

We develop a new approach to multi-label conformal prediction in which we aim to output a precise set of promising prediction candidates with a bounded number of incorrect answers. Standard conformal prediction provides the ability to adapt…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-16 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

We present large sample results for partitioning-based least squares nonparametric regression, a popular method for approximating conditional expectation functions in statistics, econometrics, and machine learning. First, we obtain a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-20 Matias D. Cattaneo , Max H. Farrell , Yingjie Feng