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We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem and introduce a novel point-process-based prediction algorithm. Spatio-temporal prediction is extensively studied in Machine Learning literature due to its critical real-life applications such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-17 Oguzhan Karaahmetoglu , Suleyman S. Kozat

A variational inference-based framework for training a multi-output Gaussian process latent variable model, specifically tailored to the tails-up spatio-temporal stream network, is developed. Training, given a censored observational data…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Marno Basson , Tobias M. Louw , Theresa R. Smith

We consider a sequential decision making task, where the goal is to optimize an unknown function without evaluating parameters that violate an a~priori unknown (safety) constraint. A common approach is to place a Gaussian process prior on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-13 Alessandro G. Bottero , Carlos E. Luis , Julia Vinogradska , Felix Berkenkamp , Jan Peters

Active policy search combines the trial-and-error methodology from policy search with Bayesian optimization to actively find the optimal policy. First, policy search is a type of reinforcement learning which has become very popular for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Ruben Martinez-Cantin

This paper proposes a novel distributed optimization framework that addresses time-varying optimization problems without requiring explicit derivative information of the objective functions. Traditional distributed methods often rely on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-29 Xuebin Li , Xuefei Yang , Emilia Fridman , Mamadou Diagne , Jiebao Sun

Black-box zero-th order optimization is a central primitive for applications in fields as diverse as finance, physics, and engineering. In a common formulation of this problem, a designer sequentially attempts candidate solutions, receiving…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Yunchuan Zhang , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone

We consider the problem of sequentially maximising an unknown function over a set of actions while ensuring that every sampled point has a function value below a given safety threshold. We model the function using kernel-based and Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-21 Arpan Losalka , Jonathan Scarlett

Bayesian On-line Changepoint Detection is extended to on-line model selection and non-stationary spatio-temporal processes. We propose spatially structured Vector Autoregressions (VARs) for modelling the process between changepoints (CPs)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-07 Jeremias Knoblauch , Theodoros Damoulas

Sequential optimization of black-box functions from noisy evaluations has been widely studied, with Gaussian Process bandit algorithms such as GP-UCB guaranteeing no-regret in stationary settings. However, for time-varying objectives, it is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-04 Eliabelle Mauduit , Eloïse Berthier , Andrea Simonetto

Model predictive control solves a constrained optimization problem online in order to compute an implicit closed-loop control policy. Recursive feasibility -- guaranteeing that the optimal control problem will have a solution at every time…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-16 Jacob W. Knaup , Panagiotis Tsiotras

Many applications require a learner to make sequential decisions given uncertainty regarding both the system's payoff function and safety constraints. In safety-critical systems, it is paramount that the learner's actions do not violate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-06 Sanae Amani , Mahnoosh Alizadeh , Christos Thrampoulidis

Optimization problems with uncertain black-box constraints, modeled by warped Gaussian processes, have recently been considered in the Bayesian optimization setting. This work introduces a new class of constraints in which the same…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Johannes Wiebe , Inês Cecílio , Jonathan Dunlop , Ruth Misener

Physical simulation-based optimization is a common task in science and engineering. Many such simulations produce image- or tensor-based outputs where the desired objective is a function of those outputs, and optimization is performed over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-01 Wesley Maddox , Qing Feng , Max Balandat

This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Gary Koop , Dimitris Korobilis

Time-varying optimization problems are central to many engineering applications, where performance metrics and system constraints evolve dynamically with time. Several algorithms have been proposed to address these problems; a common…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Gianluca Bianchin , Bryan Van Scoy

Signal processing and machine learning algorithms for data supported over graphs, require the knowledge of the graph topology. Unless this information is given by the physics of the problem (e.g., water supply networks, power grids), the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-02-11 Alberto Natali , Mario Coutino , Elvin Isufi , Geert Leus

Thompson sampling is a heuristic algorithm for the multi-armed bandit problem which has a long tradition in machine learning. The algorithm has a Bayesian spirit in the sense that it selects arms based on posterior samples of reward…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Yi Liu , Veronika Rockova

Real-world environments are inherently uncertain, and to operate safely in these environments robots must be able to plan around this uncertainty. In the context of motion planning, we desire systems that can maintain an acceptable level of…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-03-18 Charles Dawson , Ashkan Jasour , Andreas Hofmann , Brian Williams

We consider the problem of optimizing an unknown (typically non-convex) function with a bounded norm in some Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS), based on noisy bandit feedback. We consider a novel variant of this problem in which the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-05 Ilija Bogunovic , Andreas Krause , Jonathan Scarlett

Time Optimal Path Parametrization is the problem of minimizing the time interval during which an actuation constrained agent can traverse a given path. Recently, an efficient linear-time algorithm for solving this problem was proposed.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-06-24 Igor Spasojevic , Varun Murali , Sertac Karaman