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Bayesian parameter inference for complex stochastic simulators is challenging due to intractable likelihood functions. Existing simulation-based inference methods often require large number of simulations and become costly to use in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-06 Vasilis Gkolemis , Christos Diou , Michael U. Gutmann

Single-molecule experiments are a unique tool to characterize the structural dynamics of biomolecules. However, reconstructing molecular details from noisy single-molecule data is challenging. Simulation-based inference (SBI) integrates…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-10-22 Lars Dingeldein , Pilar Cossio , Roberto Covino

We present the first-ever cosmological constraints from a simulation-based inference (SBI) analysis of galaxy clustering from the new ${\rm S{\scriptsize IM}BIG}$ forward modeling framework. ${\rm S{\scriptsize IM}BIG}$ leverages the…

Most cosmic shear analyses to date have relied on summary statistics (e.g. $\xi_+$ and $\xi_-$). These types of analyses are necessarily sub-optimal, as the use of summary statistics is lossy. In this paper, we forward-model the convergence…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-04-29 Supranta Sarma Boruah , Eduardo Rozo , Pier Fiedorowicz

In Simulation-based Inference, the goal is to solve the inverse problem when the likelihood is only known implicitly. Neural Posterior Estimation commonly fits a normalized density estimator as a surrogate model for the posterior. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-04 Benjamin Kurt Miller , Marco Federici , Christoph Weniger , Patrick Forré

(Abridged) We investigate and quantify the impact of finite simulation volume on weak lensing two- and four-point statistics. These {\it finite support} (FS) effects are modelled for several estimators, simulation box sizes and source…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-27 Joachim Harnois-Deraps , Ludovic van Waerbeke

In high-throughput screenings, it is common to estimate the effects of many treatments using a small number of independent trials of each. Because little is known about the distributional properties of the measurements from these trials, it…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-17 Jackson Loper , Jeffrey Regier

Single-molecule force spectroscopy (smFS) is a powerful approach to studying molecular self-organization. However, the coupling of the molecule with the ever-present experimental device introduces artifacts, that complicates the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-04-25 Lars Dingeldein , Pilar Cossio , Roberto Covino

Inferring the values and uncertainties of cosmological parameters in a cosmology model is of paramount importance for modern cosmic observations. In this paper, we use the simulation-based inference (SBI) approach to estimate cosmological…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-08-02 Moonzarin Reza , Yuanyuan Zhang , Brian Nord , Jason Poh , Aleksandra Ciprijanovic , Louis Strigari

We introduce Flat Hilbert Bayesian Inference (FHBI), an algorithm designed to enhance generalization in Bayesian inference. Our approach involves an iterative two-step procedure with an adversarial functional perturbation step and a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Tuan Truong , Quyen Tran , Quan Pham-Ngoc , Nhat Ho , Dinh Phung , Trung Le

Simulation models, in particular agent-based models, are gaining popularity in economics. The considerable flexibility they offer, as well as their capacity to reproduce a variety of empirically observed behaviours of complex systems, give…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-20 Joel Dyer , Patrick Cannon , J. Doyne Farmer , Sebastian Schmon

Bayesian inference is a principled framework for dealing with uncertainty. The practitioner can perform an initial assumption for the physical phenomenon they want to model (prior belief), collect some data and then adjust the initial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-10 Vasileios Gkolemis , Michael Gutmann

Many recent works in simulation-based inference (SBI) rely on deep generative models to approximate complex, high-dimensional posterior distributions. However, evaluating whether or not these approximations can be trusted remains a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-11 Julia Linhart , Alexandre Gramfort , Pedro L. C. Rodrigues

The halo model (HM) describes the inhomogeneous universe as a collection of halos. The full nonlinear power spectrum of the universe is well approximated by the HM, whose prediction can be easily computed without lengthy numerical…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2011-09-07 Kimmo Kainulainen , Valerio Marra

In cosmology, emulators play a crucial role by providing fast and accurate predictions of complex physical models, enabling efficient exploration of high-dimensional parameter spaces that would be computationally prohibitive with direct…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-10 Deaglan J. Bartlett , Shivam Pandey

In weak-lensing cosmological studies, peak statistics is sensitive to nonlinear structures and thus complementary to cosmic shear two-point correlations. In this paper, we explore a new approach, namely, the peak steepness statistics, with…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-03-01 Ziwei Li , Xiangkun Liu , Zuhui Fan

Strong lensing is a sensitive probe of the small-scale density fluctuations in the Universe. We implement a novel approach to modeling strongly lensed systems using probabilistic cataloging, which is a transdimensional, hierarchical, and…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2018-03-06 Tansu Daylan , Francis-Yan Cyr-Racine , Ana Diaz Rivero , Cora Dvorkin , Douglas P. Finkbeiner

Complex computer simulations are commonly required for accurate data modelling in many scientific disciplines, making statistical inference challenging due to the intractability of the likelihood evaluation for the observed data.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-02 Pablo de Castro , Tommaso Dorigo

Simulation-based inference enables learning the parameters of a model even when its likelihood cannot be computed in practice. One class of methods uses data simulated with different parameters to infer models of the likelihood-to-evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Giulio Isacchini , Natanael Spisak , Armita Nourmohammad , Thierry Mora , Aleksandra M. Walczak

Considering the increasing size of available data, the need for statistical methods that control the finite sample bias is growing. This is mainly due to the frequent settings where the number of variables is large and allowed to increase…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-12 Stéphane Guerrier , Mucyo Karemera , Samuel Orso , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser
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