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An efficient technique is introduced for model inference of complex nonlinear dynamical systems driven by noise. The technique does not require extensive global optimization, provides optimal compensation for noise-induced errors and is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 V. N. Smelyanskiy , D. A. Timucin , A. Bandrivskyy , D. G. Luchinsky

We propose a method to detect model misspecifications in nonlinear causal additive and potentially heteroscedastic noise models. We aim to identify predictor variables for which we can infer the causal effect even in cases of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-28 Christoph Schultheiss , Peter Bühlmann

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-14 Fani Tsapeli , Peter Tino , Mirco Musolesi

Discovering the underlying dynamics of complex systems from data is an important practical topic. Constrained optimization algorithms are widely utilized and lead to many successes. Yet, such purely data-driven methods may bring about…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Nan Chen , Yinling Zhang

This work proposes a robust data-driven predictive control approach for unknown nonlinear systems in the presence of bounded process and measurement noise. Data-driven reachable sets are employed for the controller design instead of using…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-07-18 Mahsa Farjadnia , Amr Alanwar , Muhammad Umar B. Niazi , Marco Molinari , Karl Henrik Johansson

In this study, we consider the experimentally-obtained, periodically-forced response of a nonlinear structure in the presence of process noise. Control-based continuation is used to measure both the stable and unstable periodic solutions…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-02-17 Sandor Beregi , David A. W. Barton , Djamel Rezgui , Simon A. Neild

The problem of determining the mathematical model of the dynamics of multi-dimensional control systems in the presence of noise under the condition that the correlation functions cannot be found. Known statistical dynamics of linear systems…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2013-01-29 V. N. Tibabishev

Knowledge about existence, strength, and dominant direction of causal influences is of paramount importance for understanding complex systems. With limited amounts of realistic data, however, current methods for investigating causal links…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-10-20 Erik Laminski , Klaus R. Pawelzik

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Antti Pöllänen , Pekka Marttinen

Identification of causal direction between a causal-effect pair from observed data has recently attracted much attention. Various methods based on functional causal models have been proposed to solve this problem, by assuming the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Ruichu Cai , Jie Qiao , Kun Zhang , Zhenjie Zhang , Zhifeng Hao

We study the robustness of system estimation to parametric perturbations in system dynamics and initial conditions. We define the problem of sensitivity-based parametric uncertainty quantification in dynamical system estimation. The main…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-09 Ayush Pandey

Ordinary differential equation models are used to describe dynamic processes across biology. To perform likelihood-based parameter inference on these models, it is necessary to specify a statistical process representing the contribution of…

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Ola Ahmad , Nicolas Bereux , Loïc Baret , Vahid Hashemi , Freddy Lecue

We introduce an approach which allows detecting causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Causality is assessed by a variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-07 Vittorio Del Tatto , Gianfranco Fortunato , Domenica Bueti , Alessandro Laio

In this paper, we establish an iterative data-driven approach to derive guaranteed bounds on nonlinearity measures of unknown nonlinear systems. In this context, nonlinearity measures quantify the strength of the nonlinearity of a dynamical…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-08-13 Tim Martin , Frank Allgöwer

Nonlinear dynamics are ubiquitous in science and engineering applications, but the physics of most complex systems is far from being fully understood. Discovering interpretable governing equations from measurement data can help us…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Luning Sun , Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Hao Sun , Jian-Xun Wang

Many methods of estimating causal models do not provide estimates of confidence in the resulting model. In this work, a metric is proposed for validating the output of a causal model fit; the robustness of the model structure with resampled…

Distinguishing the cause and effect from bivariate observational data is the foundational problem that finds applications in many scientific disciplines. One solution to this problem is assuming that cause and effect are generated from a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-19 Quang-Duy Tran , Bao Duong , Phuoc Nguyen , Thin Nguyen

Data-driven, model-free analytics are natural choices for discovery and forecasting of complex, nonlinear systems. Methods that operate in the system state-space require either an explicit multidimensional state-space, or, one approximated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-15 Joseph Park , Gerald M Pao , Erik Stabenau , George Sugihara , Thomas Lorimer

Uncertainty estimation for unlabeled data is crucial to active learning. With a deep neural network employed as the backbone model, the data selection process is highly challenging due to the potential over-confidence of the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Xingjian Li , Pengkun Yang , Yangcheng Gu , Xueying Zhan , Tianyang Wang , Min Xu , Chengzhong Xu
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