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A key challenge in spatial statistics is the analysis for massive spatially-referenced data sets. Such analyses often proceed from Gaussian process specifications that can produce rich and robust inference, but involve dense covariance…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-25 Shinichiro Shirota , Andrew O. Finley , Bruce D. Cook , Sudipto Banerjee

This paper presents a Bayesian method for identification of jump Markov linear system parameters. A primary motivation is to provide accurate quantification of parameter uncertainty without relying on asymptotic in data-length arguments. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-11 Mark P. Balenzuela , Adrian G. Wills , Christopher Renton , Brett Ninness

In networks of dynamic systems, one challenge is to identify the interconnection structure on the basis of measured signals. Inspired by a Bayesian approach in [1], in this paper, we explore a Bayesian model selection method for identifying…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Shengling Shi , Giulio Bottegal , Paul M. J. Van den Hof

Many self-exciting systems change because endogenous amplification, as opposed to exogenous forcing, varies. We study a Hawkes process with fixed background rate and kernel, but piecewise time-varying productivity. For exponential kernels…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-12-30 Conor Kresin , Boris Baeumer , Sophie Phillips

The Hawkes process is a simple point process with wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. The Hawkes process is defined for continuous-time setting. However, data is also recorded in a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-23 Haixu Wang

As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-31 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

In conventional approaches for multiobject tracking (MOT), raw sensor data undergoes several preprocessing stages to reduce data rate and computational complexity. This typically includes coherent processing that aims at maximizing the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-04 Mingchao Liang , Florian Meyer

Bayesian computation for filtering and forecasting analysis is developed for a broad class of dynamic models. The ability to scale-up such analyses in non-Gaussian, nonlinear multivariate time series models is advanced through the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Isaac Lavine , Andrew Cron , Mike West

The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Maya Sadeler-Perrin

The process of dynamic state estimation (filtering) based on point process observations is in general intractable. Numerical sampling techniques are often practically useful, but lead to limited conceptual insight about optimal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-08-04 Yuval Harel , Ron Meir , Manfred Opper

By attaching auxiliary event times to the chronologically ordered observations, we formulate the Bayesian multiple changepoint problem of discrete-time observations into that of continuous-time ones. A version of forward-filtering…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-30 Lu Shaochuan

Spatial point process (SPP) models are commonly used to analyze point pattern data in many fields, including presence-only data in ecology. Existing exact Bayesian methods for fitting these models are computationally expensive because they…

Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Xiuyuan Cheng , Tingnan Gong , Yao Xie

High dimensional data has introduced challenges that are difficult to address when attempting to implement classical approaches of statistical process control. This has made it a topic of interest for research due in recent years. However,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-04-23 Mohammad Nabhan , Yajun Mei , Jianjun Shi

Online algorithms for detecting changepoints, or abrupt shifts in the behavior of a time series, are often deployed with limited resources, e.g., to edge computing settings such as mobile phones or industrial sensors. In these scenarios it…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-27 Gregory W. Gundersen , Diana Cai , Chuteng Zhou , Barbara E. Engelhardt , Ryan P. Adams

A novel approach to quantile estimation in multivariate linear regression models with change-points is proposed: the change-point detection and the model estimation are both performed automatically, by adopting either the quantile fused…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-10 Gabriela Ciuperca , Matus Maciak

Change Point Detection (CPD) aims to identify moments of abrupt distribution shifts in data streams. Real-world high-dimensional CPD remains challenging due to data pattern complexity and violation of common assumptions. Resorting to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-03 Alexander Stepikin , Evgenia Romanenkova , Alexey Zaytsev

Given a collection of entities (or nodes) in a network and our intermittent observations of activities from each entity, an important problem is to learn the hidden edges depicting directional relationships among these entities. Here, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-01 Triet M Le

The estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in the potential outcome setting is biased when there exists model misspecification or unobserved confounding. As these biases are unobservable, what model to use when remains a critical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-09 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosaku Takanashi , Kenichiro McAlinn , Edoardo M. Airoldi

System identification is of special interest in science and engineering. This article is concerned with a system identification problem arising in stochastic dynamic systems, where the aim is to estimate the parameters of a system along…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-27 Christos Merkatas , Simo Särkkä