Related papers: Bayesian Bivariate Conway-Maxwell-Poisson Regressi…
This paper proposes a computationally efficient Bayesian factor model for multiple grouped count data. Adopting the link function approach, the proposed model can capture the association within and between the at-risk probabilities and…
The Poisson distribution has been widely studied and used for modeling univariate count-valued data. Multivariate generalizations of the Poisson distribution that permit dependencies, however, have been far less popular. Yet, real-world…
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…
A new three parameter natural extension of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution is proposed. This distribution includes the recently proposed COM-Poisson type negative binomial (COM-NB) distribution [Chakraborty, S. and…
Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…
We propose a new class of discrete generalized linear models based on the class of Poisson-Tweedie factorial dispersion models with variance of the form $\mu + \phi\mu^p$, where $\mu$ is the mean, $\phi$ and $p$ are the dispersion and…
In wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, 2019-2020 soccer seasons across the world were postponed and eventually made up during the summer months of 2020. Researchers from a variety of disciplines jumped at the opportunity to compare the…
We propose a versatile joint regression framework for count responses. The method is implemented in the R add-on package GJRM and allows for modelling linear and non-linear dependence through the use of several copulae. Moreover, the…
The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution is a two-parameter generalisation of the Poisson distribution that can be used to model data that is under- or over-dispersed relative to the Poisson distribution. The normalizing constant…
Beta-binomial/Poisson models have been used by many authors to model multivariate count data. Lora and Singer (Statistics in Medicine, 2008) extended such models to accommodate repeated multivariate count data with overdipersion in the…
We introduce a new dynamical system for sequentially observed multivariate count data. This model is based on the gamma--Poisson construction---a natural choice for count data---and relies on a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior that ties…
The prediction of future insurance claims based on observed risk factors, or covariates, help the actuary set insurance premiums. Typically, actuaries use parametric regression models to predict claims based on the covariate information.…
Numerous statistics have been proposed for the measure of offensive ability in major league baseball. While some of these measures may offer moderate predictive power in certain situations, it is unclear which simple offensive metrics are…
In this paper, an alternative count distribution suitable for modeling over dispersed, zero vertex unimodality and monotonically decreasing data sets. Though the proposed probability model includes Gauss Hypergeometric special function, it…
Continuous-time assessments of game outcomes in sports have become increasingly common in the last decade. In American football, only discrete-time estimates of play value were possible, since the most advanced public football datasets were…
Event counts are response variables with non-negative integer values representing the number of times that an event occurs within a fixed domain such as a time interval, a geographical area or a cell of a contingency table. Analysis of…
Although basketball is a dynamic process sport, with 5 plus 5 players competing on both offense and defense simultaneously, learning some static information is predominant for professional players, coaches and team mangers. In order to have…
In this paper, we investigate right-truncated count data models incorporating cavariates into the parameters. A regression method is proposed to model right-truncated count data exibiting high heterogeneity. The study encompasses the…
Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the not purely random, but highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the probability distributions of scored goals for…
Bivariate count data arise in several different disciplines (epidemiology, marketing, sports statistics, etc., to name but a few) and the bivariate Poisson distribution which is a generalization of the Poisson distribution plays an…