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Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-07-08 Jannes Münchmeyer , Ulf Leser , Frederik Tilmann

Brittle fractures of inhomogeneous materials like rocks, concrete, or ceramics are of two types: Nominally brittle and driven by the propagation of a single dominant crack or quasi-brittle and resulting from the accumulation of many…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-04-12 Jonathan Barés , Alizée Dubois , Lamine Hattali , Davy Dalmas , Daniel Bonamy

Today, observations of earthquake precursors remain widely debated. While precursory slow slip is an important feature of earthquake nucleation, foreshock sequences are not always observed and their temporal evolution remains unconstrained.…

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-10-24 Ian Baughman , John B Rundle , Tianjin Zhang

An attempt to construct a phenomenological theory of earthquakes is being undertaken by a small research team, which includes the author. We have only taken the first steps towards goal, but the results already obtained convincingly…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-10-31 A. V. Guglielmi

Self-similarity indicates that large and small earthquakes share the same physics, where all variables scale with rupture length $L$. Here I show that rupture tip acceleration during the start of dynamic rupture (break-out phase) is also…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-11-05 Stefan Nielsen

Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-30 Daniel S. Fisher , Karin Dahmen , Sharad Ramanathan , Yehuda Ben-Zion

We obtain a complete characterization of \emph{topologically exact patterns} on \emph{triods}. Based on their \emph{rotation number} $\rho$, these \emph{exact patterns} are grouped into three classes: \emph{slow} ($\rho < \frac{1}{3}$),…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-12-02 Sourav Bhattacharya

Earthquakes are rupture-like processes that propagate along tectonic faults and cause seismic waves. The propagation speed and final area of the rupture, which determine an earthquake's potential impact, are directly related to the nature…

Earthquake catalog declustering is the procedure of separating event clusters from background seismicity, which is an important task in statistical seismology, earthquake forecasting, and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Several…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-04-14 Robert Shcherbakov , Sidhanth Kothari

Earthquakes are a major threat to nations worldwide. Earthquake detection is an important scientific challenge, not only for its social impacts, but also since it reflects the actual degree of understanding of the physical processes…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-05-05 Yosef Ashkenazy , Ittai Kurzon , Eitan Asher

We analyze 21 aftershock sequences of California to test for evidence of space-time diffusion. Aftershock diffusion may result from stress diffusion and is also predicted by any mechanism of stress weakening. Here, we test an alternative…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-26 Agnes Helmstetter , Guy Ouillon , Didier Sornette

Friction plays a fundamental role in many natural processes, including earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Earthquakes occur when highly compressed fault surfaces accumulate large enough shear stresses, causing the faults to…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-02-16 Mary Agajanian , Nadia Lapusta , Anna Pandolfi , Michael Ortiz

Extending the central concept of recurrence times for a point process to recurrent events in space-time allows us to characterize seismicity as a record breaking process using only spatiotemporal relations among events. Linking record…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-26 Joern Davidsen , Peter Grassberger , Maya Paczuski

We discuss various statistical distributions of earthquake numbers. Previously we derived several discrete distributions to describe earthquake numbers for the branching model of earthquake occurrence: these distributions are the Poisson,…

Geophysics · Physics 2010-11-24 Yan Y. Kagan

We estimate the relative importance of small and large earthquakes for static stress changes and for earthquake triggering, assuming that earthquakes are triggered by static stress changes and that earthquakes are located on a fractal…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-09-06 A. Helmstetter , Y. Y. Kagan , D. D. Jackson

In line of the intermediate-term monitoring of seismic activity aimed at prediction of the world largest earthquakes the seismic dynamics of the Earth's lithosphere is analysed as a single whole, which is the ultimate scale of the complex…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Leontina L. Romashkova , Vladimir G. Kossobokov

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-05-18 T. R. Krishna Mohan , P. G. Revathi

Discoveries of the scale-free and small-world features are reported on a network constructed from the seismic data. It is shown that the connectivity distribution decays as a power law, and the value of the degrees of separation, i.e., the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Sumiyoshi Abe , Norikazu Suzuki

The empirical Bath's law states that the average difference in magnitude between a mainshock and its largest aftershock is 1.2, regardless of the mainshock magnitude. Following Vere-Jones [1969] and Console et al. [2003], we show that the…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-08-23 Agnes Helmstetter , Didier Sornette
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