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Synthetic control methods can produce misleading counterfactual predictions when outcome series contain unit-specific stochastic trends, a common feature of nonstationary macroeconomic data. Existing remedies, such as pre-filtering or…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-21 Ziyi Liu , Yiqing Xu

We present a novel framework for performing statistical sampling, expectation estimation, and partition function approximation using \emph{arbitrary} heuristic stochastic processes defined over discrete state spaces. Using a highly parallel…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-04 Firas Hamze , Evgeny Andryash

In order to prevent conflicting or counteracting use of flexibility options, the coordination between distribution system operator and transmission system operator has to be strengthened. For this purpose, methods for the standardized…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-06-03 Gerster Johannes , Marcel Sarstedt , Eric MSP Veith , Sebastian Lehnhoff , Lutz Hofmann

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte , Marcus Weber , Wei Zhang

This paper introduces an optimization problem (P) and a solution strategy to design variable-speed-limit controls for a highway that is subject to traffic congestion and uncertain vehicle arrival and departure. By employing a finite…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Dan Li , Dariush Fooladivanda , Sonia Martinez

Sampling-based approaches are widely used in systems without analytic models to estimate risk or find optimal control. However, gathering sufficient data in such scenarios can be prohibitively costly. On the other hand, in many situations,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-16 Zhuoyuan Wang , Takashi Tanaka , Yongxin Chen , Yorie Nakahira

This work addresses stochastic optimal control problems where the unknown state evolves in continuous time while partial, noisy, and possibly controllable measurements are only available in discrete time. We develop a framework for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Christian Bayer , Boualem Djehiche , Eliza Rezvanova , Raul Fidel Tempone

In this work, we investigate the sampling and reconstruction of spectrally $s$-sparse bandlimited graph signals governed by heat diffusion processes. We propose a random space-time sampling regime, referred to as {randomized} dynamical…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-10-24 Longxiu Huang , Dongyang Li , Sui Tang , Qing Yao

The investigation of tumor invasion and metastasis dynamics is crucial for advancements in cancer biology and treatment. Many mathematical models have been developed to study the invasion of host tissue by tumor cells. In this paper, we…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-07-09 Boyi Hu , Zhongjian Wang , Jack Xin , Zhiwen Zhang

We consider the problem of statistical inference for the effective dynamics of multiscale diffusion processes with (at least) two widely separated characteristic time scales. More precisely, we seek to determine parameters in the effective…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-30 Sebastian Krumscheid , Grigorios A. Pavliotis , Serafim Kalliadasis

Sampling rare events in metastable dynamical systems is often a computationally expensive task and one needs to resort to enhanced sampling methods such as importance sampling. Since we can formulate the problem of finding optimal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-05 Enric Ribera Borrell , Jannes Quer , Lorenz Richter , Christof Schütte

We present an early investigation into the use of neural diffusion processes for global optimisation, focusing on Zhang et al.'s Path Integral Sampler. One can use the Boltzmann distribution to formulate optimization as solving a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Max McGuinness , Eirik Fladmark , Francisco Vargas

We review two recently developed efficient methods for calculating rate constants of processes dominated by rare events in high-dimensional complex systems. The first is transition interface sampling (TIS), based on the measurement of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Titus S. van Erp , Peter G. Bolhuis

This work addresses the problem of optimally steering the state covariance of a linear stochastic system from an initial to a target, subject to hybrid transitions. The nonlinear and discontinuous jump dynamics complicate the control design…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-18 Hongzhe Yu , Diana Frias Franco , Aaron M. Johnson , Yongxin Chen

The randomized midpoint method, proposed by [SL19], has emerged as an optimal discretization procedure for simulating the continuous time Langevin diffusions. Focusing on the case of strong-convex and smooth potentials, in this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-14 Ye He , Krishnakumar Balasubramanian , Murat A. Erdogdu

We propose and analyse a hybrid numerical-asymptotic $hp$ boundary element method for time-harmonic scattering of an incident plane wave by an arbitrary collinear array of sound-soft two-dimensional screens. Our method uses an approximation…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-08-12 David P. Hewett , Stephen Langdon , Simon N. Chandler-Wilde

In this paper, a gradient-free distributed algorithm is introduced to solve a set constrained optimization problem under a directed communication network. Specifically, at each time-step, the agents locally compute a so-called…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-09-06 Yipeng Pang , Guoqiang Hu

We address the problem of sampling double-ended diffusive paths. The ensemble of paths is expressed using a symmetric version of the Onsager-Machlup formula, which only requires evaluation of the force field and which, upon direct time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-07-27 Thomas F. Miller , Cristian Predescu

The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm allows one to sample asymptotically from any probability distribution $\pi$. There has been recently much work devoted to the development of variants of the MH update which can handle scenarios where such…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-28 Christophe Andrieu , Arnaud Doucet , Sinan Yıldırım , Nicolas Chopin

Stochastic sampling methods are arguably the most direct and least intrusive means of incorporating parametric uncertainty into numerical simulations of partial differential equations with random inputs. However, to achieve an overall error…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-04-09 Hans-Werner van Wyk