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The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…
Most mechanistic predator-prey modelling has involved either parameterization from process rate data or inverse modelling. Here, we take a median road: we aim at identifying the potential benefits of combining datasets, when both population…
Fine population distribution both in space and in time is crucial for epidemic management, disaster prevention,urban planning and more. Human mobility data have a great potential for mapping population distribution at a high level of…
We analyze mathematical models of the global human population growth and compare them to actual dynamics of the world population and of the world surplus product. We consider a possibility that the so-called world's demographic transition…
Integral projection models (IPMs) are widely used to study population growth and the dynamics of demographic structure (e.g. age and size distributions) within a population.These models use data on individuals' growth, survival, and…
Motivated by issues arising in population dynamics, we consider the problem of iterating a given analytic function a number of times. We use the celebrated technique known as Carleman linearization that turns (for a certain class of…
Starting with the neo-Bayesian revival of the 1950s, many statisticians argued that it was inappropriate to use Bayesian methods, and in particular subjective Bayesian methods in governmental and public policy settings because of their…
Traditional survey-based political issue polling is becoming less tractable due to increasing costs and risk of bias associated with growing non-response rates and declining coverage of key demographic groups. With researchers and pollsters…
Existing theories for the evolution of aging and death treat senescence as a side-effect of strong selection for fertility. These theories are well-developed mathematically, but fit poorly with emerging experimental data. The data suggest…
Increasing pressures on the environment are generating an ever-increasing need to manage animal and plant populations sustainably, and to protect and rebuild endangered populations. Effective management requires reliable mathematical…
We introduce a population-age-time (PAT) model which describes the temporal evolution of the population distribution in age. The surprising result is that the qualitative nature of the population distribution dynamics is robust with respect…
Populations of interest are often hidden from data for a variety of reasons, though their magnitude remains important in determining resource allocation and appropriate policy. One popular approach to population size estimation, the…
State of the art large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance on a variety of benchmark tasks and are increasingly used as components in larger applications, where LLM-based predictions serve as proxies for human…
The evaluation of large language models faces significant challenges. Technical benchmarks often lack real-world relevance, while existing human preference evaluations suffer from unrepresentative sampling, superficial assessment depth, and…
This article presents a comprehensive study of the continuous McKendrick model, which serves as a foundational framework in population dynamics and epidemiology. The model is formulated through partial differential equations that describe…
Historically, matrix projection models (MPMs) have been employed to study population dynamics with regard to size, age or structure. To work with continuous traits, in the past decade, integral projection models (IPMs) have been proposed.…
A new statistical technique for constructing linear latent structure (LLS) models from available data, supported by well established theoretical results and an efficient algorithm, is presented. The method reduces the problem of estimating…
Nowadays, in our globalized world,the local and intercountry movements of population have been increased. This situation makes it important for host countries to do right predictions for the future population of their native people as well…
Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Here we tackle the problem of determining the distribution of the population density of a social space…
We show that a simple nonlinear differential equation (originally studied in the physics of disordered systems) is able to mathematically describe the global population growth over the past 12000 years. Different regimes of population…