Related papers: Temperature Variability and Natural Disasters

This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over…

The literature on the costs of climate change often draws a link between climatic 'tipping points' and large economic shocks, frequently called 'catastrophes'. The use of the phrase 'tipping points' in this context can be misleading. In…

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health are complicated by potential interactions with…

With improved measurement and modelling technology, variability has emerged as an essential feature in non-equilibrium processes. While traditionally, mean values and variance have been heavily used, they are not appropriate in describing…

Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…

Sea-level rise and associated flood hazards pose severe risks to the millions of people globally living in coastal zones. Models representing coastal adaptation and impacts are important tools to inform the design of strategies to manage…

This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of this approach is based on two main choices. First, to…

Extreme climate events, e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves, and freezes, are becoming more frequent and intense with severe global socio-economic impacts. Growing populations and economic activity leads to increased exposure to these…

This paper tests the feasibility and estimates the cost of climate control through economic policies. It provides a toolbox for a statistical historical assessment of a Stochastic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy, and its use in…

Internal climate variability arises from the climate system's inherently chaotic dynamics. Quantifying it is essential for climate science, as it enables risk-based decision-making and differentiates between externally forced change and…

Ambient temperatures are rising globally, with the greatest increases recorded at night. Concurrently, the prevalence of insufficient sleep is increasing in many populations, with substantial costs to human health and well-being. Even…

Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…

Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…

The resilience of electric power grids is threatened by natural hazards. Climate-related hazards are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Statistical analyses clearly demonstrate a rise in the number of incidents (power…

A major challenge of climate change adaptation is to assess the effect of changing weather on human health. In spite of an increasing literature on the weather-related health subject, many aspect of the relationship are not known, limiting…

Here we define natural chaotic systems, like the earths weather and climate system, as chaotic systems which are open to the world so have constantly changing boundary conditions, and measurements of their states are subject to errors. In…

Climate modification measures to counteract global warming receive some more new attentions in these years. Most current researches only discuss the impact of these measures to climate, but how to design such a climate regulator is still…

We present a cognitive model of opinion dynamics which studies the behavior of a population of interacting individuals in the context of risk of natural disaster. In particular, we investigate the response of the individuals to the…

This study re-examines the impact of natural disasters on economic growth in the perspective of developed and developing countries. Based on panel data consisting of developing and developed countries over the period 1990-2019 and using…

Global warming accelerates permafrost degradation, impacting the reliability of critical infrastructure used by more than five million people daily. Furthermore, permafrost thaw produces substantial methane emissions, further accelerating…