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In chaotic dynamical systems such as the weather, prediction errors grow faster in some situations than in others. Real-time knowledge about the error growth could enable strategies to adjust the modelling and forecasting infrastructure…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-04-26 Daniel Ayers , Jack Lau , Javier Amezcua , Alberto Carrassi , Varun Ojha

We study distributed differentiation, where agents in a networked system estimate the average of local time-varying signals and their derivatives under mild assumptions on the agents' signals and their first and second derivatives. Existing…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-03 Rodrigo Aldana-López , Irene Perez Salesa , David Gomez Gutierrez , Rosario Aragues , Carlos Sagues

The computation of the entire Lyapunov spectrum for extended dynamical systems is a very time consuming task. If the system is in a chaotic spatio-temporal regime it is possible to approximately reconstruct the Lyapunov spectrum from the…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 R. Carretero-González , S. Ørstavik , J. Huke , D. S. Broomhead , J. Stark

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-17 Hossein Soleimani , James Hensman , Suchi Saria

Spatiotemporal chaotic systems are difficult to characterize in a model-free manner because of their high dimensionality, strong nonlinearity, and sensitivity to initial conditions. Coupled map lattices, as a representative class of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-15 Xiaoqi Lei , Zixiang Yan , Jian Gao , Yueheng Lan , Jinghua Xiao

This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-09 Zifeng Zhao , Ting Fung Ma , Wai Leong Ng , Chun Yip Yau

By means of the linear parameter-varying (LPV) Fundamental Lemma, we derive novel data-driven predictive control (DPC) methods for LPV systems. In particular, we present output-feedback and state-feedback-based LPV-DPC methods with terminal…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-26 Chris Verhoek , Julian Berberich , Sofie Haesaert , Roland Tóth , Hossam S. Abbas

Many real-world systems modeled using differential equations involve unknown or uncertain parameters. Standard approaches to address parameter estimation inverse problems in this setting typically focus on estimating constants; yet some…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-03-25 Anna Fitzpatrick , Molly Folino , Andrea Arnold

Time-dependent structural reliability analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems is non-trivial; subsequently, scope of most of the structural reliability analysis methods is limited to time-independent reliability analysis only. In this work,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-21 Navaneeth N. , Souvik Chakraborty

The fundamental lemma from behavioral systems theory yields a data-driven non-parametric system representation that has shown great potential for the data-efficient control of unknown linear and weakly nonlinear systems, even in the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-26 Johannes Teutsch , Sebastian Ellmaier , Sebastian Kerz , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

In this work, an adaptive predictive control scheme for linear systems with unknown parameters and bounded additive disturbances is proposed. In contrast to related adaptive control approaches that robustly consider the parametric…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-03 Johannes Teutsch , Christopher Narr , Sebastian Kerz , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

We propose lacunarity as a novel recurrence quantification measure and illustrate its efficacy to detect dynamical regime transitions which are exhibited by many complex real-world systems. We carry out a recurrence plot based analysis for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-01-26 Tobias Braun , Vishnu R. Unni , R. I. Sujith , Juergen Kurths , Norbert Marwan

Cross-sectional observations from a dynamical system can be modeled via steady-state distributions of Markov processes. The major challenge is then to determine whether the process parameters can be identified and estimated from the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Cecilie Olesen Recke , Niels Richard Hansen

We consider the data-driven stabilization of discrete-time linear time-varying systems. The controller is defined as a linear state-feedback law whose gain is adapted to the plant changes through a data-based event-triggering rule. To do…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-08 Andrea Iannelli , Romain Postoyan

Safe control for dynamical systems is critical, yet the presence of unknown dynamics poses significant challenges. In this paper, we present a learning-based control approach for tracking control of a class of high-order systems, operating…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-03 Zewen Yang , Xiaobing Dai , Weijie Yang , Bahar İlgen , Aleksandar Anžel , Georges Hattab

Identifying causal relationships from observational time series data is a key problem in disciplines such as climate science or neuroscience, where experiments are often not possible. Data-driven causal inference is challenging since…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-03 Jakob Runge , Peer Nowack , Marlene Kretschmer , Seth Flaxman , Dino Sejdinovic

We present a new data-driven method to provide probabilistic stability guarantees for black-box switched linear systems. By sampling a finite number of observations of trajectories, we construct approximate Lyapunov functions and deduce the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-05-04 Anne Rubbens , Zheming Wang , Raphaël M. Jungers

This paper deals with the problem of formulating an adaptive Model Predictive Control strategy for constrained uncertain systems. We consider a linear system, in presence of bounded time varying additive uncertainty. The uncertainty is…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-13 Monimoy Bujarbaruah , Xiaojing Zhang , Marko Tanaskovic , Francesco Borrelli

The growing study of time series, especially those related to nonlinear systems, has challenged the methodologies to characterize and classify dynamical structures of a signal. Here we conceive a new diagnostic tool for time series based on…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2017-07-05 G. Corso , T. L. Prado , G. Z. dos S. Lima , S. R. Lopes

We develop an indirect-adaptive model predictive control algorithm for uncertain linear systems subject to constraints. The system is modeled as a polytopic linear parameter varying system where the convex combination vector is constant but…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-09-25 Stefano Di Cairano