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Related papers: Batch Predictive Inference

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A fundamental challenge for any intelligent system is prediction: given some inputs, can you predict corresponding outcomes? Most work on supervised learning has focused on producing accurate marginal predictions for each input. However, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-25 Zheng Wen , Ian Osband , Chao Qin , Xiuyuan Lu , Morteza Ibrahimi , Vikranth Dwaracherla , Mohammad Asghari , Benjamin Van Roy

Selective inference aims at providing valid inference after a data-driven selection of models or hypotheses. It is essential to avoid overconfident results and replicability issues. While significant advances have been made in this area for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-14 Matteo D'Alessandro , Magne Thoresen

Black-box variational inference (BBVI) scales poorly to high-dimensional problems when it is used to estimate a multivariate Gaussian approximation with a full covariance matrix. In this paper, we extend the batch-and-match (BaM) framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-03 Chirag Modi , Diana Cai , Lawrence K. Saul

Uncertainty quantification for individual treatment effects (ITEs) is a daunting challenge in causal inference. Motivated by recent advances in conformal prediction, several works aim to construct distribution-free prediction sets for ITEs…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Chongguang Tao , Zheng Zhou , Yuhong Yang

We study the problems of sequential nonparametric two-sample and independence testing. Sequential tests process data online and allow using observed data to decide whether to stop and reject the null hypothesis or to collect more data,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-21 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Aaditya Ramdas

In many machine learning applications, we are faced with incomplete datasets. In the literature, missing data imputation techniques have been mostly concerned with filling missing values. However, the existence of missing values is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-07 Mohammad Kachuee , Kimmo Karkkainen , Orpaz Goldstein , Sajad Darabi , Majid Sarrafzadeh

Conformal prediction aims to determine precise levels of confidence in predictions for new objects using past experience. However, the commonly used exchangeable assumptions between the training data and testing data limit its usage in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-18 Youhui Ye , Meimei Liu , Xin Xing

Zero-inflated outcomes, where responses are zero with positive probability and otherwise continuous, are common in biomedical, environmental, and social science studies. We propose a conformal prediction based framework that provides…

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xing Han , Ziyang Tang , Joydeep Ghosh , Qiang Liu

In many application settings, the data have missing entries which make analysis challenging. An abundant literature addresses missing values in an inferential framework: estimating parameters and their variance from incomplete tables. Here,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-22 Julie Josse , Jacob M. Chen , Nicolas Prost , Erwan Scornet , Gaël Varoquaux

We develop an efficient Bayesian sequential inference framework for factor analysis models observed via various data types, such as continuous, binary and ordinal data. In the continuous data case, where it is possible to marginalise over…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-28 Konstantinos Vamvourellis , Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos , Irini Moustaki

Randomization inference is a widely-used and appealing approach for analyzing treatment effects in randomized experiments, as it is finite-sample valid and does not require any distributional assumptions. However, naive application of…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-12 Xinran Li , Peizan Sheng , Zeyang Yu

Conformal inference is a fundamental and versatile tool that provides distribution-free guarantees for many machine learning tasks. We consider the transductive setting, where decisions are made on a test sample of $m$ new points, giving…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Ulysse Gazin , Gilles Blanchard , Etienne Roquain

Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful learners for simulation-based inference (SBI), enabling fast and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulated and real data. Their score-based formulation offers a flexible way…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Jonas Arruda , Niels Bracher , Ullrich Köthe , Jan Hasenauer , Stefan T. Radev

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

In today's era, Neural Networks (NN) are applied in various scientific fields such as robotics, medicine, engineering, etc. However, the predictions of neural networks themselves contain a degree of uncertainty that must always be taken…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 E. V. Aretos , D. G. Sotiropoulos

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal

How can we draw trustworthy scientific conclusions? One criterion is that a study can be replicated by independent teams. While replication is critically important, it is arguably insufficient. If a study is biased for some reason and other…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-06 Yujin Jeong , Dominik Rothenhäusler

As the frontiers of applied statistics progress through increasingly complex experiments we must exploit increasingly sophisticated inferential models to analyze the observations we make. In order to avoid misleading or outright erroneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-23 Michael Betancourt

Probabilistic regression models the entire predictive distribution of a response variable, offering richer insights than classical point estimates and directly allowing for uncertainty quantification. While diffusion-based generative models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Carlo Kneissl , Christopher Bülte , Philipp Scholl , Gitta Kutyniok