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This paper introduces WeatherFormer, a transformer encoder-based model designed to learn robust weather features from minimal observations. It addresses the challenge of modeling complex weather dynamics from small datasets, a bottleneck…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Adib Hasan , Mardavij Roozbehani , Munther Dahleh

Precipitation nowcasting is critical for disaster mitigation and aviation safety. However, radar-only models frequently suffer from a lack of large-scale atmospheric context, leading to performance degradation at longer lead times. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Yuze Qin , Qingyong Li , Zhiqing Guo , Wen Wang , Yan Liu , Yangli-ao Geng

AI-based methods have revolutionized atmospheric forecasting, with recent successes in medium-range forecasting spurring the development of climate foundation models. Accurate modeling of complex atmospheric dynamics at high spatial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Deifilia Kieckhefen , Markus Götz , Lars H. Heyen , Achim Streit , Charlotte Debus

Foundation models (FMs) for the Earth system learn statistical relationships between physical variables across massive datasets to enable versatile downstream applications through finetuning, separating them from task-specific weather…

We assess empirical models in climate econometrics using modern statistical learning techniques. Existing approaches are prone to outliers, ignore sample dependencies, and lack principled model selection. To address these issues, we…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-26 Christof Schötz , Jan Hassel , Christian Otto

Accurate evaluation of weather forecasting models is critical for their reliable deployment in real-world applications. However, existing benchmarks predominantly rely on reanalysis products such as ERA5, which are generated through delayed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Ruize Li , Zhibin Wen , Tao Han , Hao Chen , Fenghua Ling , Wei Zhang , Song Guo , Lei Bai

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models that integrate coupled physical equations forward in time are the traditional tools for simulating atmospheric processes and forecasting weather. With recent advancements in deep learning, AI-based…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-12-22 Milton Gomez , Louis Poulain--Auzeau , Alexis Berne , Tom Beucler

Similar to conventional video generation, current deep learning-based weather prediction frameworks often lack explicit physical constraints, leading to unphysical outputs that limit their reliability for operational forecasting. Among…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-27 Qiusheng Huang , Xiaohui Zhong , Xu Fan , Lei Chen , Hao Li

Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-01 Won Chang , Jiali Wang , Julian Marohnic , Rao Kotamarthi , Elisabeth J. Moyer

Operational weather forecasting models have advanced for decades on both the explicit numerical solvers and the empirical physical parameterization schemes. However, the involved high computational costs and uncertainties in these existing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-05-13 Mengxuan Chen , Ziqi Yuan , Jinxiao Zhang , Runmin Dong , Haohuan Fu

Recent advances in AI weather forecasting have led to the emergence of so-called "foundation models", typically defined by expensive pretraining and minimal fine-tuning for downstream tasks. However, in the natural sciences, a desirable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Fanny Lehmann , Firat Ozdemir , Benedikt Soja , Torsten Hoefler , Siddhartha Mishra , Sebastian Schemm

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Foundation models (FMs), pre-trained on massive unlabelled datasets, have the potential to drastically change AI applications in ocean science, where labelled data are often sparse and expensive to collect. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Geoffrey Dawson , Remy Vandaele , Andrew Taylor , David Moffat , Helen Tamura-Wicks , Sarah Jackson , Rosie Lickorish , Paolo Fraccaro , Hywel Williams , Chunbo Luo , Anne Jones

AI-based climate and weather models have rapidly gained popularity, providing faster forecasts with skill that can match or even surpass that of traditional dynamical models. Despite this success, these models face a key challenge:…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-20 Jacob B. Landsberg , Elizabeth A. Barnes

To improve the trustworthiness of an AI model, finding consistent, understandable representations of its inference process is essential. This understanding is particularly important in high-stakes operations such as weather forecasting,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Soyeon Kim , Junho Choi , Subeen Lee , Jaesik Choi

Recent advances in deep learning have significantly elevated weather prediction models. However, these models often falter in real-world scenarios due to their sensitivity to spatial-temporal shifts. This issue is particularly acute in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Lu Han , Xu-Yang Chen , Han-Jia Ye , De-Chuan Zhan

Modeling environmental ecosystems is essential for effective resource management, sustainable development, and understanding complex ecological processes. However, traditional data-driven methods face challenges in capturing inherently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Runlong Yu , Shengyu Chen , Yiqun Xie , Huaxiu Yao , Jared Willard , Xiaowei Jia

Precipitation remains one of the most challenging climate variables to observe and predict accurately. Existing datasets face intricate trade-offs: gauge observations are relatively trustworthy but sparse, satellites provide global coverage…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-24 Sencan Sun , Congyi Nai , Baoxiang Pan , Wentao Li , Lu Li , Xin Li , Efi Foufoula-Georgiou , Yanluan Lin

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models often produce ``blurry'' precipitation forecasts. This study presents a novel solution to tackle this problem -- integrating terrain-following coordinates into AIWP models.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-17 Yingkai Sha , John S. Schreck , William Chapman , David John Gagne

The proliferation of data-driven models in weather and climate sciences has marked a significant paradigm shift, with advanced models demonstrating exceptional skill in medium-range forecasting. However, these models are often limited by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Haiwen Guan , Moein Darman , Dibyajyoti Chakraborty , Troy Arcomano , Ashesh Chattopadhyay , Romit Maulik

The Earth's weather system encompasses intricate weather data modalities and diverse weather understanding tasks, which hold significant value to human life. Existing data-driven models focus on single weather understanding tasks (e.g.,…