Related papers: A Comparison between Financial and Gambling Market…
Financial crimes like money laundering and terrorism financing can have significant impacts on society, including loss of trust in the integrity of the financial system, misuse and mismanagement of public funds, increase in societal…
We present and study a Minority Game based model of a financial market where adaptive agents -- the speculators -- interact with deterministic agents -- called producers. Speculators trade only if they detect predictable patterns which…
Graph embedding technics are studied with interest on public datasets, such as BlogCatalog, with the common practice of maximizing scoring on graph reconstruction, link prediction metrics etc. However, in the financial sector the important…
Prediction markets are useful for estimating probabilities of claims whose truth will be revealed at some fixed time -- this includes questions about the values of real-world events (i.e. statistical uncertainty), and questions about the…
A recent trend in multi-party computation is to achieve cryptographic fairness via monetary penalties, i.e. each honest player either obtains the output or receives a compensation in the form of a cryptocurrency. We pioneer another type of…
The sports betting industry has experienced rapid growth, driven largely by technological advancements and the proliferation of online platforms. Machine learning (ML) has played a pivotal role in the transformation of this sector by…
Stochastic portfolio theory aims at finding relative arbitrages, i.e. trading strategies which outperform the market with probability one. Functionally generated portfolios, which are deterministic functions of the market weights, are an…
We present an analysis of the price impact associated with trades effected by different financial firms. Using data from the Spanish Stock Market, we find a high degree of heterogeneity across different market members, both in the…
Financial options are contracts that specify the right to buy or sell an underlying asset at a strike price by an expiration date. Standard exchanges offer options of predetermined strike values and trade options of different strikes…
This paper explores the significant history of professional football and the betting industry, tracing its evolution from clandestine beginnings to a lucrative multi-million-pound enterprise. Initiated by the legalization of gambling in…
Financial fraud is an issue with far reaching consequences in the finance industry, government, corporate sectors, and for ordinary consumers. Increasing dependence on new technologies such as cloud and mobile computing in recent years has…
The financial market trend forecasting method is emerging as a hot topic in financial markets today. Many challenges still currently remain, and various researches related thereto have been actively conducted. Especially, recent research of…
Recently, in order to explore the mechanism behind wealth or income distribution, several models have been proposed by applying principles of statistical mechanics. These models share some characteristics, such as consisting of a group of…
It has been assumed that arbitrage profits are not possible in efficient markets, because future prices are not predictable. Here we show that predictability alone is not a sufficient measure of market efficiency. We instead propose to…
A novel algorithm for actively trading stocks is presented. While traditional expert advice and "universal" algorithms (as well as standard technical trading heuristics) attempt to predict winners or trends, our approach relies on…
We check the claims that data from Google Trends contain enough data to predict future financial index returns. We first discuss the many subtle (and less subtle) biases that may affect the backtest of a trading strategy, particularly when…
The rapid dissemination of information through digital platforms has revolutionized the way we access and consume news and information, particularly in the realm of finance. However, this digital age has also given rise to an alarming…
Prediction markets are often used as mechanisms to aggregate information about a future event, for example, whether a candidate will win an election. The event is typically assumed to be exogenous. In reality, participants may influence the…
We consider a financial market in which traders potentially face restrictions in trading some of the available securities. Traders are heterogeneous with respect to their beliefs and risk profiles, and the market is assumed thin: traders…
To investigate the universal structure of interactions in financial dynamics, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of price returns of the Chinese stock market, in comparison with those of the American and Indian stock markets. As an…