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We study causal inference in randomized experiments (or quasi-experiments) following a $2\times 2$ factorial design. There are two treatments, denoted $A$ and $B$, and units are randomly assigned to one of four categories: treatment $A$…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-12 Mate Kormos , Robert P. Lieli , Martin Huber

An important problem in econometrics and marketing is to infer the causal impact that a designed market intervention has exerted on an outcome metric over time. This paper proposes to infer causal impact on the basis of a…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-02 Kay H. Brodersen , Fabian Gallusser , Jim Koehler , Nicolas Remy , Steven L. Scott

Advances in wearables and digital technology now make it possible to deliver behavioral mobile health interventions to individuals in their everyday life. The micro-randomized trial (MRT) is increasingly used to provide data to inform the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-30 Tianchen Qian , Hyesun Yoo , Predrag Klasnja , Daniel Almirall , Susan A. Murphy

Supervised causal learning has shown promise in causal discovery, yet it often struggles with generalization across diverse interventional settings, particularly when intervention targets are unknown. To address this, we propose TICL…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Wei Chen , Rui Ding , Bojun Huang , Yang Zhang , Qiang Fu , Yuxuan Liang , Han Shi , Dongmei Zhang

Treatment switching in a randomized controlled trial is said to occur when a patient randomized to one treatment arm switches to another treatment arm during follow-up. This can occur at the point of disease progression, whereby patients in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-24 Andrew Ying , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

There is an increasing interest in estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in randomized and observational studies. However, little research has been conducted to understand heterogeneity in an instrumental variables study. In this work,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-20 Michael Johnson , Jiongyi Cao , Hyunseung Kang

The ability to predict individualized treatment effects (ITEs) based on a given patient's profile is essential for personalized medicine. We propose a hypothesis testing approach to choosing between two potential treatments for a given…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Tianxi Cai , Tony Cai , Zijian Guo

Many computational models were proposed to extract temporal patterns from clinical time series for each patient and among patient group for predictive healthcare. However, the common relations among patients (e.g., share the same doctor)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-03 Fan Zhang , Tong Wu , Yunlong Wang , Yong Cai , Cao Xiao , Emily Zhao , Lucas Glass , Jimeng Sun

Causal inference from observational data is an ambitious but highly relevant task, with diverse applications ranging from natural to social sciences. Within the scope of nonparametric time series, causal inference defined through…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-22 Shu Li , Jan Ernest , Peter Bühlmann

In semicompeting risks problems, nonterminal time-to-event outcomes such as time to hospital readmission are subject to truncation by death. These settings are often modeled with illness-death models for the hazards of the terminal and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-27 Leah Comment , Fabrizia Mealli , Sebastien Haneuse , Corwin Zigler

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Chao Zhang , Zhi Geng , Wei Li , Peng Ding

The aim of clinical effectiveness research using repositories of electronic health records is to identify what health interventions 'work best' in real-world settings. Since there are several reasons why the net benefit of intervention may…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-19 Jie Zhu , Blanca Gallego

One in three women globally experiences intimate partner violence (IPV), yet little is known about how such trauma affects economic decision-making. We provide causal evidence that IPV influences women's time preferences - a key parameter…

General Economics · Economics 2025-07-15 Dan Anderberg , Rachel Cassidy , Anaya Dam , Melissa Hidrobo , Jessica Leight , Karlijn Morsink

We consider the challenges associated with causal inference in settings where data from a randomized trial is augmented with control data from an external source to improve efficiency in estimating the average treatment effect (ATE).…

We generalize the potential outcome framework to time series with an intervention by defining causal effects on stochastic processes. Interventions in dynamic systems alter not only outcome levels but also evolutionary dynamics -- changing…

Understanding true influence in social media requires distinguishing correlation from causation--particularly when analyzing misinformation spread. While existing approaches focus on exposure metrics and network structures, they often fail…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Lin Tian , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

Causal identification of treatment effects for infectious disease outcomes in interconnected populations is challenging because infection outcomes may be transmissible to others, and treatment given to one individual may affect others'…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-11 Xiaoxuan Cai , Eben Kenah , Forrest W. Crawford

Target trial emulation (TTE) enables causal questions to be studied with observational data when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are infeasible. Yet treatment-effect methods often address causal estimation, missingness, and temporal…

Inferring causal effects from an observational study is challenging because participants are not randomized to treatment. Observational studies in infectious disease research present the additional challenge that one participant's treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-25 Brian G. Barkley , Michael G. Hudgens , John D. Clemens , Mohammad Ali , Michael E. Emch

Inferring causal individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is a challenging problem whose difficulty is exacerbated by the presence of treatment assignment bias. In this work, we propose a new way to estimate the ITE using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Abhin Shah , Kartik Ahuja , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Dennis Wei , Kush Varshney , Amit Dhurandhar