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Research has shown that deep networks tend to be overly optimistic about their predictions, leading to an underestimation of prediction errors. Due to the limited nature of data, existing studies have proposed various methods based on model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Jia-Qi Yang , De-Chuan Zhan , Le Gan

Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis is highly desired in many applications. Typically, machine learning models in classification or segmentation are only developed to provide binary answers; however, quantifying the…

Probabilistic classifiers output a probability distribution on target classes rather than just a class prediction. Besides providing a clear separation of prediction and decision making, the main advantage of probabilistic models is their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-20 Juozas Vaicenavicius , David Widmann , Carl Andersson , Fredrik Lindsten , Jacob Roll , Thomas B. Schön

Uncertainty in probabilistic classifiers predictions is a key concern when models are used to support human decision making, in broader probabilistic pipelines or when sensitive automatic decisions have to be taken. Studies have shown that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-09 Nicolas Posocco , Antoine Bonnefoy

We study the problem of semantic segmentation calibration. Lots of solutions have been proposed to approach model miscalibration of confidence in image classification. However, to date, confidence calibration research on semantic…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Dongdong Wang , Boqing Gong , Liqiang Wang

Probabilistic image segmentation encodes varying prediction confidence and inherent ambiguity in the segmentation problem. While different probabilistic segmentation models are designed to capture different aspects of segmentation…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-03-31 Steffen Czolbe , Kasra Arnavaz , Oswin Krause , Aasa Feragen

Probabilistic convolutional neural networks, which predict distributions of predictions instead of point estimates, led to recent advances in many areas of computer vision, from image reconstruction to semantic segmentation. Besides state…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-01-19 Josef Lorenz Rumberger , Lisa Mais , Dagmar Kainmueller

Accurate probabilistic predictions can be characterized by two properties -- calibration and sharpness. However, standard maximum likelihood training yields models that are poorly calibrated and thus inaccurate -- a 90% confidence interval…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Shachi Deshpande

For semantic segmentation, label probabilities are often uncalibrated as they are typically only the by-product of a segmentation task. Intersection over Union (IoU) and Dice score are often used as criteria for segmentation success, while…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-07-28 Zhipeng Ding , Xu Han , Peirong Liu , Marc Niethammer

Calibrated confidence estimates obtained from neural networks are crucial, particularly for safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving or medical image diagnosis. However, although the task of confidence calibration has been…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Fabian Küppers , Anselm Haselhoff , Jan Kronenberger , Jonas Schneider

Advances in architectural design, data availability, and compute have driven remarkable progress in semantic segmentation. Yet, these models often rely on relaxed Bayesian assumptions, omitting critical uncertainty information needed for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-19 M. M. A. Valiuddin , R. J. G. van Sloun , C. G. A. Viviers , P. H. N. de With , F. van der Sommen

In many applications, accurate class probability estimates are required, but many types of models produce poor quality probability estimates despite achieving acceptable classification accuracy. Even though probability calibration has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Tim Leathart , Maksymilian Polaczuk

The confidence calibration of deep learning-based perception models plays a crucial role in their reliability. Especially in the context of autonomous driving, downstream tasks like prediction and planning depend on accurate confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-07 Mariella Dreissig , Florian Piewak , Joschka Boedecker

We present a deep learning framework for probabilistic pixel-wise semantic segmentation, which we term Bayesian SegNet. Semantic segmentation is an important tool for visual scene understanding and a meaningful measure of uncertainty is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-10-12 Alex Kendall , Vijay Badrinarayanan , Roberto Cipolla

Underlying the use of statistical approaches for a wide range of applications is the assumption that the probabilities obtained from a statistical model are representative of the "true" probability that event, or outcome, will occur.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-15 Xixin Wu , Mark Gales

The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-18 Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or…

Calibration is a frequently invoked concept when useful label probability estimates are required on top of classification accuracy. A calibrated model is a function whose values correctly reflect underlying label probabilities. Calibration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Alireza Torabian , Ruth Urner

Many classification applications require accurate probability estimates in addition to good class separation but often classifiers are designed focusing only on the latter. Calibration is the process of improving probability estimates by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-31 Tuomo Alasalmi , Jaakko Suutala , Heli Koskimäki , Juha Röning

For speech classification tasks, deep learning models often achieve high accuracy but exhibit shortcomings in calibration, manifesting as classifiers exhibiting overconfidence. The significance of calibration lies in its critical role in…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-27 Yaqian Hao , Chenguang Hu , Yingying Gao , Shilei Zhang , Junlan Feng
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