Related papers: How does liquidity shape the yield curve?
Coherent structures/motions in turbulence inherently give rise to intermittent signals with sharp peaks, heavy-skirt, and skewed distributions of velocity increments, highlighting the non-Gaussian nature of turbulence. That suggests that…
We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view - often expressed by central banks - that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a…
We conduct modeling of the price dynamics following order flow imbalance in market microstructure and apply the model to the analysis of Chinese CSI 300 Index Futures. There are three findings. The first is that the order flow imbalance is…
Basic peculiarities of market price fluctuations are known to be well described by a recently developed random walk model in a temporally deforming quadric potential force whose center is given by a moving average of past price traces…
This paper examines the problem of pricing spread options under some models with jumps driven by Compound Poisson Processes and stochastic volatilities in the form of Cox-Ingersoll-Ross(CIR) processes. We derive the characteristic function…
On microscopic and mesoscopic scales, plastic flow of crystals is characterized by large intrinsic fluctuations. Deformation by crystallographic slip occurs in a sequence of intermittent bursts ('slip avalanches') with power-law size…
We consider a market where many agents trade many different types of products with each other. We model development of collective modes in this market, and quantify these by fluctuations that scale with time with a Hurst exponent of about…
Viewing a yield curve as a sparse collection of measurements on a latent continuous random function allows us to model it statistically as a sparsely observed functional time series. Doing so, we use the state-of-the-art methods in…
We propose a non-linear observation-driven version of the Hasbrouck (1991) model for dynamically estimating trades' market impact and information content. We find that market impact displays an intraday pattern superimposed with large…
We develop a general term structure framework taking stochastic discontinuities explicitly into account. Stochastic discontinuities are a key feature in interest rate markets, as for example the jumps of the term structures in…
The Fractional Stochastic Regularity Model (FSRM) is an extension of Black-Scholes model describing the multifractal nature of prices. It is based on a multifractional process with a random Hurst exponent $H_t$, driven by a fractional…
We perform an analysis of preliminary data on strange particles yields and fluctuations within the Statistical hadronization model. We begin by describing the theoretical disagreements between different statistical models currently on the…
The notion of a credit spread curve is fundamental in fixed income investing, but in practice it is not `given' and needs to be constructed from bond prices either for a particular issuer, or for a sector rating-by-rating. Rather than…
Income- and price-elasticity of demand quantify the responsiveness of markets to changes in income, and in prices, respectively. Under the assumptions of utility maximization and preference-independence (additive preferences), mathematical…
It is known that the impact of transactions on stock price (market impact) is a concave function of the size of the order, but there exists little quantitative theory that suggests why this is so. I develop a quantitative theory for the…
This paper shows that jumps in financial asset prices are often erroneously identified and are, in fact, rare events accounting for a very small proportion of the total price variation. We apply new econometric techniques to a comprehensive…
The concepts of scale invariance, self-similarity and scaling have been fruitfully applied to the study of price fluctuations in financial markets. After a brief review of the properties of stable Levy distributions and their applications…
We study, both analytically and numerically, an ARCH-like, multiscale model of volatility, which assumes that the volatility is governed by the observed past price changes on different time scales. With a power-law distribution of time…
In this paper we explain the wild fluctuations of financial prices from the intrinsic amplifying feedback of speculative supply and demand. Formally, we show that an asset return follows a multiplicative random growth with exogenous input,…
We revisit the problem of pricing and hedging plain vanilla single-currency interest rate derivatives using multiple distinct yield curves for market coherent estimation of discount factors and forward rates with different underlying rate…