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Accurate uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks (GNNs) is essential, especially in high-stakes domains where GNNs are frequently employed. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a promising framework for quantifying uncertainty by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-06 Seohyeon Cha , Honggu Kang , Joonhyuk Kang

We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Shai Feldman , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Chen Xu , Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

This research leverages Conformal Prediction (CP) in the form of Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) to accurately estimate uncertainty in a suite of machine learning (ML)-based radio metric models [1] as well as in a 2-D map-based ML path…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Alexis Bose , Jonathan Ethier , Ryan G. Dempsey , Yifeng Qiu

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Pranav Maneriker , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

In machine learning, uncertainty quantification helps assess the reliability of model predictions, which is important in high-stakes scenarios. Traditional approaches often emphasize predictive accuracy, but there is a growing focus on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Jake S. Rhodes , Scott D. Brown , J. Riley Wilkinson

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Etash Guha , Shlok Natarajan , Thomas Möllenhoff , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Eugene Ndiaye

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) over graphs arises in a number of safety-critical applications in network science. The Gaussian process (GP), as a classical Bayesian framework for UQ, has been developed to handle graph-structured data by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Jinwen Xu , Qin Lu , Georgios B. Giannakis

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free approach to uncertainty quantification with finite-sample guarantees. However, applying CP to graph neural networks (GNNs) remains challenging as the combinatorial nature of graphs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Peyman Baghershahi , Fangxin Wang , Debmalya Mandal , Sourav Medya

This article studies the effects of inter-channel time and level differences in stereophonic reproduction on perceived localization uncertainty, which is defined as how difficult it is for a listener to tell where a sound source is located.…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-09-08 Enzo De Sena , Zoran Cvetkovic , Huseyin Hacihabiboglu , Marc Moonen , Toon van Waterschoot

Computational models providing accurate estimates of their uncertainty are crucial for risk management associated with decision making in healthcare contexts. This is especially true since many state-of-the-art systems are trained using the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-09 Hongshu Liu , Nabeel Seedat , Julia Ive

Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Michal Klein , Louis Bethune , Eugene Ndiaye , Marco Cuturi

Time series forecasting is crucial for applications like resource scheduling and risk management, where multi-step predictions provide a comprehensive view of future trends. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a mainstream approach for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Qingdi Yu , Zhiwei Cao , Ruihang Wang , Zhen Yang , Lijun Deng , Min Hu , Yong Luo , Xin Zhou

Distribution estimation for noisy data via density deconvolution is a notoriously difficult problem for typical noise distributions like Gaussian. We develop a density deconvolution estimator based on quadratic programming (QP) that can…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-06 Ran Yang , Daniel Apley , Jeremy Staum , David Ruppert

Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Dongxia Wu , Liyao Gao , Xinyue Xiong , Matteo Chinazzi , Alessandro Vespignani , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Zijian Zhang , Xinyu Chen , Yuanjie Shi , Liyuan Lillian Ma , Zifan Xu , Yan Yan

Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Andro Sabashvili

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular uncertainty quantification method that provides distribution-free, statistically valid prediction sets, assuming that training and test data are exchangeable. In such a case, CP's prediction sets are…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Linus Jeary , Tom Kuipers , Mehran Hosseini , Nicola Paoletti