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Long simulation times in climate sciences typically require coarse grids due to computational constraints. Nonetheless, unresolved subscale information significantly influences the prognostic variables and can not be neglected for reliable…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-22 Konrad Simon , Jörn Behrens

Clouds play a key role in regulating climate change but are difficult to simulate within Earth system models (ESMs). Improving the representation of clouds is one of the key tasks towards more robust climate change projections. This study…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-28 A. Kaps , A. Lauer , G. Camps-Valls , P. Gentine , L. Gómez-Chova , V. Eyring

A generative diffusion model is used to produce probabilistic ensembles of precipitation intensity maps at the 1-hour 5-km resolution. The generation is conditioned on infrared and microwave radiometric measurements from the GOES and DMSP…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-26 Clement Guilloteau , Gavin Kerrigan , Kai Nelson , Giosue Migliorini , Padhraic Smyth , Runze Li , Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

Physical systems whose dynamics are governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) find applications in numerous fields, from engineering design to weather forecasting. The process of obtaining the solution from such PDEs may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-21 Pratyush Bhatt , Yash Kumar , Azzeddine Soulaimani

The development of a kilometer-scale E3SM Land Model (km-scale ELM) is an integral part of the E3SM project, which seeks to advance energy-related Earth system science research with state-of-the-art modeling and simulation capabilities on…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Dali Wang , Chen Wang , Qinglei Cao , Peter Schwartz , Fengming Yuan , Jayesh Krishna , Danqing Wu , Danial Ricciuto , Peter Thornton , Shih-Chieh Kao , Michele Thornton , Kathryn Mohror

Energy-based models (EBMs) offer a flexible framework for probabilistic modelling across various data domains. However, training EBMs on data in discrete or mixed state spaces poses significant challenges due to the lack of robust and fast…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-03 Tobias Schröder , Zijing Ou , Yingzhen Li , Andrew B. Duncan

Measurements of atmosphere-surface exchange are largely limited by the availability of fast-response gas analyzers; this limitation hampers our understanding of the role of terrestrial ecosystems in atmospheric chemistry and global change.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-04 Anas Emad

Weather forecasting has seen a shift in methods from numerical simulations to data-driven systems. While initial research in the area focused on deterministic forecasting, recent works have used diffusion models to produce skillful ensemble…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Martin Andrae , Tomas Landelius , Joel Oskarsson , Fredrik Lindsten

Climate projections have uncertainties related to components of the climate system and their interactions. A typical approach to quantifying these uncertainties is to use climate models to create ensembles of repeated simulations under…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-29 Graham Clyne , Guillaume Couairon , Guillaume Gastineau , Claire Monteleoni , Anastase Charantonis

Reliable regional climate information is essential for assessing the impacts of climate change and for planning in sectors such as renewable energy; yet, producing high-resolution projections through coordinated initiatives like CORDEX that…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-09 Nina Effenberger , Maxim Samarin , Maybritt Schillinger , Reto Knutti

Due to the rapidly changing climate, the frequency and severity of extreme weather is expected to increase over the coming decades. As fully-resolved climate simulations remain computationally intractable, policy makers must rely on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-29 Benedikt Barthel Sorensen , Alexis Charalampopoulos , Shixuan Zhang , Bryce Harrop , Ruby Leung , Themistoklis Sapsis

Predictions of global climate models typically operate on coarse spatial scales due to the large computational costs of climate simulations. This has led to a considerable interest in methods for statistical downscaling, a similar process…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-03 Christina Winkler , Paula Harder , David Rolnick

Modeling extreme precipitation and temperature is vital for understanding the impacts of climate change, as hazards like intense rainfall and record-breaking temperatures can result in severe consequences, including floods, droughts, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Remy MacDonald , Benjamin Seiyon Lee , John Foley , Justin Lee

Heat waves are projected to increase in frequency and severity with global warming. Improved warning systems would help reduce the associated loss of lives, wildfires, power disruptions, and reduction in crop yields. In this work, we…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-13 Ignacio Lopez-Gomez , Amy McGovern , Shreya Agrawal , Jason Hickey

Our planet is facing increasingly frequent extreme events, which pose major risks to human lives and ecosystems. Recent advances in machine learning (ML), especially with foundation models (FMs) trained on extensive datasets, excel in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Shan Zhao , Zhitong Xiong , Jie Zhao , Xiao Xiang Zhu

In recent years, Deep-Learning Earth System Models (DL-ESMs) have emerged as promising, computationally efficient complements to traditional Earth system models. Here, we present an evaluation framework for testing DL-ESMs from a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-20 Giuliana Pallotta , Shiheng Duan , Céline Bonfils , Jiwoo Lee , Seth Goodnight , Paul Ullrich

Predicting future climatic conditions at high spatial resolution is essential for many applications and impact studies in science. Here, we present monthly time series data on precipitation, minimum- and maximum temperature for four…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-07-27 Dirk Nikolaus Karger , Dirk R. Schmatz , Gabriel Dettling , Niklaus E. Zimmermann

Diffusion models generate high-dimensional data such as images by learning a process that gradually removes noise from corrupted data. Recent studies have shown that the backward dynamics of diffusion models exhibit two characteristic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-14 Tomoei Takahashi , Takashi Takahashi , Yoshiyuki Kabashima

Pore-scale simulations accurately describe transport properties of fluids in the subsurface. These simulations enhance our understanding of applications such as assessing hydrogen storage efficiency and forecasting CO$_2$ sequestration…

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-06 Anamitra Saha , Sai Ravela