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Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-25 Seth Bassetti , Brian Hutchinson , Claudia Tebaldi , Ben Kravitz

Earth system models (ESMs) are the principal tools used in climate science to generate future climate projections under various atmospheric emissions scenarios on a global or regional scale. Generative deep learning approaches are suitable…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-16 Katie Christensen , Lyric Otto , Seth Bassetti , Claudia Tebaldi , Brian Hutchinson

Climate change exacerbates extreme weather events like heavy rainfall and flooding. As these events cause severe socioeconomic damage, accurate high-resolution simulation of precipitation is imperative. However, existing Earth System Models…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-02-03 Michael Aich , Philipp Hess , Baoxiang Pan , Sebastian Bathiany , Yu Huang , Niklas Boers

Climate change is one of the most critical challenges that our planet is facing today. Rising global temperatures are already bringing noticeable changes to Earth's weather and climate patterns with an increased frequency of unpredictable…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-19 Karandeep Singh , Chaeyoon Jeong , Naufal Shidqi , Sungwon Park , Arjun Nellikkattil , Elke Zeller , Meeyoung Cha

Policy targets evolve faster than the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project cycles, complicating adaptation and mitigation planning that must often contend with outdated projections. Climate model output emulators address this gap by…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Shahine Bouabid , Andre Nogueira Souza , Raffaele Ferrari

Earth system models (ESMs), which simulate the physics and chemistry of the global atmosphere, land, and ocean, are often used to generate future projections of climate change scenarios. These models are far too computationally intensive to…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Alexandra Puchko , Robert Link , Brian Hutchinson , Ben Kravitz , Abigail Snyder

High-resolution climate simulations are valuable for understanding climate change impacts. This has motivated use of regional convection-permitting climate models (CPMs), but these are very computationally expensive. We present a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-05 Henry Addison , Elizabeth Kendon , Suman Ravuri , Laurence Aitchison , Peter AG Watson

Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change and especially of extreme events like floods and droughts. In existing ESMs, precipitation is not resolved…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Michael Aich , Sebastian Bathiany , Philipp Hess , Yu Huang , Niklas Boers

Climate downscaling is a crucial technique within climate research, serving to project low-resolution (LR) climate data to higher resolutions (HR). Previous research has demonstrated the effectiveness of deep learning for downscaling tasks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Naufal Shidqi , Chaeyoon Jeong , Sungwon Park , Elke Zeller , Arjun Babu Nellikkattil , Karandeep Singh

Earth System Models (ESMs) are the primary tools for investigating future Earth system states at time scales from decades to centuries, especially in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. State-of-the-art ESMs can reproduce the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Maximilian Gelbrecht , Alistair White , Sebastian Bathiany , Niklas Boers

Accurate and high-resolution Earth system model (ESM) simulations are essential to assess the ecological and socio-economic impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are computationally too expensive to be run at sufficiently high…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-27 Philipp Hess , Michael Aich , Baoxiang Pan , Niklas Boers

Projection of changes in extreme indices of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are critical to assess the potential impacts of climate change on human-made and natural systems, including critical infrastructures and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-09-24 Nidhin Harilal , Udit Bhatia , Mayank Singh

Climate change is intensifying rainfall extremes, making high-resolution precipitation projections crucial for society to better prepare for impacts such as flooding. However, current Global Climate Models (GCMs) operate at spatial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-20 Ran Lyu , Linhan Wang , Yanshen Sun , Hedanqiu Bai , Chang-Tien Lu

Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…

Applications · Statistics 2017-07-20 Evan Kodra , Singdhansu Chatterjee , Stone Chen , Auroop R. Ganguly

A key challenge for computationally intensive state-of-the-art Earth System models is to distinguish global warming signals from interannual variability. Here we introduce DLESyM, a parsimonious deep learning model that accurately simulates…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-21 Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay , Bowen Liu , Dale Durran , Zihui Liu , Zachary I. Espinosa , Raul Moreno , Matthias Karlbauer

Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Björn Lütjens , Raffaele Ferrari , Duncan Watson-Parris , Noelle Selin

Earth System Models (ESM) are important tools that allow us to understand and quantify the physical, chemical & biological mechanisms governing the rates of change of elements of the Earth System, comprising of the atmosphere, ocean, land,…

Climate models, such as Earth system models (ESMs), are crucial for simulating future climate change based on projected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While ESMs are sophisticated and invaluable,…

Regional high-resolution climate projections are crucial for many applications, such as agriculture, hydrology, and natural hazard risk assessment. Dynamical downscaling, the state-of-the-art method to produce localized future climate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-03 Ignacio Lopez-Gomez , Zhong Yi Wan , Leonardo Zepeda-Núñez , Tapio Schneider , John Anderson , Fei Sha

Renewable resources are strongly dependent on local and large-scale weather situations. Skillful subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts -- beyond two weeks and up to two months -- can offer significant socioeconomic advantages to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Maximilian Springenberg , Noelia Otero , Yuxin Xue , Jackie Ma
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