Related papers: What Does ChatGPT Make of Historical Stock Returns…
Large language models (LLMs) promise to democratize financial analysis by reducing information-processing costs. Yet equal access does not ensure equal outcomes, as the locus of friction may shift from processing information to evaluating…
The remarkable achievements and rapid advancements of Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT and GPT-4 have showcased their immense potential in quantitative investment. Traders can effectively leverage these LLMs to analyze financial…
We investigate the efficacy of large language models (LLMs) in sentiment analysis of U.S. financial news and their potential in predicting stock market returns. We analyze a dataset comprising 965,375 news articles that span from January 1,…
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated promising performance in various financial applications, though their potential in complex investment strategies remains underexplored. To address this gap, we investigate how LLMs can predict…
This paper presents a comparative analysis evaluating the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) against traditional macro time series forecasting approaches. In recent times, LLMs have surged in popularity for forecasting due to their…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to predict human behavior. We propose a measure for evaluating how much knowledge a pretrained LLM brings to such a prediction: its equivalent sample size, defined as the amount of…
As artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly large language models (LLMs), become increasingly integrated into decision-making processes, the ability to trust their outputs is crucial. To earn human trust, LLMs must be well…
Large language models (LLMs), including ChatGPT, can extract profitable trading signals from the sentiment in news text. However, backtesting such strategies poses a challenge because LLMs are trained on many years of data, and backtesting…
Artificial intelligence chatbots driven by large language models (LLMs) have the potential to increase public science literacy and support scientific research, as they can quickly summarize complex scientific information in accessible…
Recent discussions about Large Language Models (LLMs) indicate that they have the potential to simulate human responses in social surveys and generate reliable predictions, such as those found in political polls. However, the existing…
We explore the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) to replicate human behavior in economic market experiments. Compared to previous studies, we focus on dynamic feedback between LLM agents: the decisions of each LLM impact the market…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as proxies for human judgment in computational social science, yet their ability to reproduce patterns of susceptibility to misinformation remains unclear. We test whether LLM-simulated…
Large language models (LLMs) are revolutionizing every aspect of society. They are increasingly used in problem-solving tasks to substitute human assessment and reasoning. LLMs are trained on what humans write and are thus exposed to human…
Large language models (LLMs) have been applied in many fields and have developed rapidly in recent years. As a classic machine learning task, time series forecasting has recently been boosted by LLMs. Recent works treat large language…
Large language models (LLMs) cannot be trusted for economic forecasts during periods covered by their training data. Counterfactual forecasting ability is non-identified when the model has seen the realized values: any observed output is…
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in decision-making scenarios that involve risk assessment, yet their alignment with human economic rationality remains unclear. In this study, we investigate whether LLMs exhibit risk…
Large language models (LLMs) have made significant strides, extending their applications to dialogue systems, automated content creation, and domain-specific advisory tasks. However, as their use grows, concerns have emerged regarding their…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in statistical research and applications. However,they are also notorious for unreliable or biased information. Here, we explore whether LLMs can be used to improve the precision of…
We study 15 large language models (LLMs) fine-tuned for chat and find that their maximum softmax probabilities (MSPs) are consistently miscalibrated on multiple-choice Q&A. However, those MSPs might still encode useful uncertainty…
Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have demonstrated superior performance on a variety of natural language processing (NLP) tasks including sentiment analysis, mathematical reasoning and summarization. Furthermore, since these…