Related papers: Generalized failure law for landslides, rockbursts…
Landslide movements typically show a series of progressively shorter quiescent phases, punctuated by sudden bursts during an acceleration crisis. We propose that such intermittent rupture phenomena can be described by a log-periodic power…
Forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent complexity and variability of volcanic processes. A key source of uncertainty arises from the sporadic nature of volcanic unrest, which is often characterised…
Forecasting violent rockbursts remains a formidable challenge due to significant uncertainties involved. One major uncertainty arises from the intermittency of rock failure processes, typically characterised by a series of progressively…
We investigate the approach to catastrophic failure in a model porous granular material undergoing uniaxial compression. A discrete element computational model is used to simulate both the micro-structure of the material and the complex…
We develop a discrete-event modeling framework that captures the progression of geophysical systems toward catastrophic failure through sequences of distinct damage events. By representing system evolution as a succession of temporally…
Many catastrophic events, including landslides, rockbursts, glacier breakoffs, and volcanic eruptions, are preceded by an observable acceleration phase that offers a critical window for early warning and hazard mitigation; however, the…
The size or energy of diverse structures or phenomena in geoscience appears to follow power-law distributions. A rigorous statistical analysis of such observations is tricky, though. Observables can span several orders of magnitude, but the…
An accurate understanding of the interplay between random and deterministic processes in generating extreme events is of critical importance in many fields, from forecasting extreme meteorological events to the catastrophic failure of…
Inspired by reliability issues in electric transmission networks, we use a probabilistic approach to study the occurrence of large failures in a stylized cascading failure model. In this model, lines have random capacities that initially…
The size of large cliff failures may be described in several ways, for instance considering the horizontal eroded area at the cliff top and the maximum local retreat of the coastline. Field studies suggest that, for large failures, the…
The failure of frictional interfaces and the spatiotemporal structures that accompany it are central to a wide range of geophysical, physical and engineering systems. Recent geophysical and laboratory observations indicated that interfacial…
One of the most important scaling laws of time dependent fracture is Basquin's law of fatigue, namely, that the lifetime of the system increases as a power law with decreasing external load amplitude, $t_f\sim \sigma_0^{-\alpha}$, where the…
We present a general prediction scheme of failure times based on updating continuously with time the probability for failure of the global system, conditioned on the information revealed on the pre-existing idiosyncratic realization of the…
Motivated by recent experiments studying the creep and breakup of a protein gel under stress, we introduce a simple mesoscopic model for the irreversible failure of gels and fibrous materials, and demonstrate it to capture much of the…
Geomaterials often exhibit progressive creep characterized by an initial decelerating phase, frequently followed by an extended period of approximately constant deformation rate, and ultimately an accelerating regime leading to catastrophic…
Forecasting the imminent catastrophic failure has a high importance for a large variety of systems from the collapse of engineering constructions, through the emergence of landslides and earthquakes, to volcanic eruptions. Failure forecast…
Creep rupture of heterogeneous materials occurring under constant sub-critical external loads is responsible for the collapse of engineering constructions and for natural catastrophes. Acoustic monitoring of crackling bursts provides…
The distribution of the magnitudes of damage avalanches during a failure process typically follows a power law. When these avalanches are recorded close to the point at which the system fails catastrophically, we find that the power law has…
Power-law type probability density functions spanning several orders of magnitude are found for different avalanche properties. We propose a methodology to overcome empirical constrains that limit the power-law range for the distributions…
We present a mesoscale elastoplastic model of creep in disordered materials which considers temperature-dependent stochastic activation of localized deformation events which are mutually coupled by internal stresses, leading to collective…