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In applications of Gaussian processes where quantification of uncertainty is of primary interest, it is necessary to accurately characterize the posterior distribution over covariance parameters. This paper proposes an adaptation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-04 Maurizio Filippone , Raphael Engler

Current approaches to fair valuation in insurance often follow a two-step approach, combining quadratic hedging with application of a risk measure on the residual liability, to obtain a cost-of-capital margin. In such approaches, the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-22 Karim Barigou , Valeria Bignozzi , Andreas Tsanakas

In applications of linear mixed-effects models, experimenters often desire uncertainty quantification for random quantities, like predicted treatment effects for unobserved individuals or groups. For example, consider an agricultural…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-19 Nicholas Syring , Fernando Miguez , Jarad Niemi

Non-parametric inference for functional data over two-dimensional domains entails additional computational and statistical challenges, compared to the one-dimensional case. Separability of the covariance is commonly assumed to address these…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-19 Tomas Masak , Tomas Rubin , Victor Panaretos

In this paper, we propose the Graph-Fused Multivariate Regression (GFMR) via Total Variation regularization, a novel method for estimating the association between a one-dimensional or multidimensional array outcome and scalar predictors.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-15 Ying Liu , Bowei Yan , Kathleen Merikangas , Haochang Shou

This paper proposes a semiparametric sieve approach to estimate impulse response functions of nonlinear time series within a general class of structural autoregressive models. We prove that a two-step procedure can flexibly accommodate…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-19 Giovanni Ballarin

This paper studies inference in two-stage randomized experiments under covariate-adaptive randomization. In the initial stage of this experimental design, clusters (e.g., households, schools, or graph partitions) are stratified and randomly…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-16 Jizhou Liu

Recursive linear structural equation models are widely used to postulate causal mechanisms underlying observational data. In these models, each variable equals a linear combination of a subset of the remaining variables plus an error term.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-21 F. Richard Guo , Emilija Perković

Modeling data with non-stationary covariance structure is important to represent heterogeneity in geophysical and other environmental spatial processes. In this work, we investigate a multistage approach to modeling non-stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-05 Ashton Wiens , Douglas Nychka , William Kleibe

This work focuses on the issue of variable selection in functional regression. Unlike most work in this framework, our approach does not select isolated points in the definition domain of the predictors, nor does it rely on the expansion of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-05 Victor Picheny , Rémi Servien , Nathalie Villa-Vialaneix

Gravitational waves from compact binaries measured by the LIGO and Virgo detectors are routinely analyzed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. Because the evaluation of the likelihood function requires evaluating millions of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-23 Arnaud Delaunoy , Antoine Wehenkel , Tanja Hinderer , Samaya Nissanke , Christoph Weniger , Andrew R. Williamson , Gilles Louppe

Sliced Inverse Regression (SIR) is an effective method for dimension reduction in high-dimensional regression problems. The original method, however, requires the inversion of the predictors covariance matrix. In case of collinearity…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-04-01 C. Bernard-Michel , L. Gardes , S. Girard

Overtaking in high-speed autonomous racing demands precise, real-time estimation of collision risk; particularly in wheel-to-wheel scenarios where safety margins are minimal. Existing methods for collision risk estimation either rely on…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Trent Weiss , Madhur Behl

Instrumental variable (IV) regression is a strategy for learning causal relationships in observational data. If measurements of input X and output Y are confounded, the causal relationship can nonetheless be identified if an instrumental…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-17 Rahul Singh , Maneesh Sahani , Arthur Gretton

Graphs are an intuitive way to represent relationships between variables in fields such as finance and neuroscience. However, these graphs often need to be inferred from data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to infer a latent…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-25 Jedidiah Harwood , Debashis Paul , Jie Peng

Since distribution shifts are common in real-world applications, there is a pressing need to develop prediction models that are robust against such shifts. Existing frameworks, such as empirical risk minimization or distributionally robust…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Xinwei Shen , Peter Bühlmann , Armeen Taeb

We develop a Stata command $\texttt{csa2sls}$ that implements the complete subset averaging two-stage least squares (CSA2SLS) estimator in Lee and Shin (2021). The CSA2SLS estimator is an alternative to the two-stage least squares estimator…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-06 Seojeong Lee , Siha Lee , Julius Owusu , Youngki Shin

In the high-dimensional regression model a response variable is linearly related to $p$ covariates, but the sample size $n$ is smaller than $p$. We assume that only a small subset of covariates is `active' (i.e., the corresponding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-03 Adel Javanmard , Andrea Montanari

The endogeneity issue is fundamentally important as many empirical applications may suffer from the omission of explanatory variables, measurement error, or simultaneous causality. Recently, \cite{hllt17} propose a "Deep Instrumental…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-01 Ruiqi Liu , Zuofeng Shang , Guang Cheng

We study estimation and inference using data collected by reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. These algorithms adaptively experiment by interacting with individual units over multiple stages, updating their strategies based on past…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-06 Vasilis Syrgkanis , Ruohan Zhan