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We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) in which the transition probabilities and rewards belong to an uncertainty set parametrized by a collection of random variables. The probability distributions for these random parameters are…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2020-02-26 Murat Cubuktepe , Nils Jansen , Sebastian Junges , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Ufuk Topcu

We analyze certain stationary fields with linear regressions and quadratic conditional variances. This classic probabilistic problem leads somewhat unexpectedly to stationary Markov processes closely tied to non-commutative probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Wlodzimierz Bryc

If an experimentalist observes a sequence of emitted quantum states via either projective or positive-operator-valued measurements, the outcomes form a time series. Individual time series are realizations of a stochastic process over the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-06-14 A. Venegas-Li , J. P. Crutchfield

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-28 Rosario Barone , Andrea Tancredi

We live in a world brimming with uncertainty, where we constantly have to make a lot of decisions under incomplete information. We are firm believers that our subjective belief cannot be computed by rigorous mathematical formula; instead…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-02-08 Lizhi Xin , Kevin Xin , Houwen Xin

Identifying an appropriate covariance function is one of the primary interests in spatial and spatio-temporal statistics because it allows researchers to analyze the dependence structure of the random process. For this purpose, spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Jongwook Kim , Chunfeng Huang , Nicholas Bussberg

We explore a stochastic model that enables capturing external influences in two specific ways. The model allows for the expression of uncertainty in the parametrisation of the stochastic dynamics and incorporates patterns to account for…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-11 Felix L. Wolf , Griselda Deelstra , Lech A. Grzelak

Quantum computers provide a super-exponential speedup for performing a Fourier transform over the symmetric group, an ability for which practical use cases have remained elusive so far. In this work, we leverage this ability to unlock…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-25 Vasilis Belis , Giulio Crognaletti , Matteo Argenton , Michele Grossi , Maria Schuld

Learning-based approaches to verifying unknown Markov decision processes (MDPs) often employ uncertain MDPs. These models use, for example, confidence intervals to capture transition uncertainty and allow synthesis of policies that are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Yannik Schnitzer , Alessandro Abate , David Parker

We provide a nonparametric method for the computation of instantaneous multivariate volatility for continuous semi-martingales, which is based on Fourier analysis. The co-volatility is reconstructed as a stochastic function of time by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-14 Paul Malliavin , Maria Elvira Mancino

Sociotechnological and geospatial processes exhibit time varying structure that make insight discovery challenging. This paper proposes a new statistical model for such systems, modeled as dynamic networks, to address this challenge. It…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-06-27 Jace Robinson , Derek Doran

We consider statistical Markov Decision Processes where the decision maker is risk averse against model ambiguity. The latter is given by an unknown parameter which influences the transition law and the cost functions. Risk aversion is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Nicole Bäuerle , Ulrich Rieder

Time homogeneous polynomial processes are Markov processes whose moments can be calculated easily through matrix exponentials. In this work, we develop a notion of time inhomogeneous polynomial processes where the coeffiecients of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-12 María Fernanda del Carmen Agoitia Hurtado , Thorsten Schmidt

A $M/M/1$ queue with catastrophes is a modified $M/M/1$ queue model for which, according to the times of a Poisson process, catastrophes occur leaving the system empty. In this work, we study a fractional $M/M/1$ queue with catastrophes,…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-13 Matheus de Oliveira Souza , Pablo Martin Rodriguez

Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-30 Lukas Köhs , Bastian Alt , Heinz Koeppl

We present an anytime algorithm which computes policies for decision problems represented as multi-stage influence diagrams. Our algorithm constructs policies incrementally, starting from a policy which makes no use of the available…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-01 Michael C. Horsch , David L. Poole

In the Markov decision process model, policies are usually evaluated by expected cumulative rewards. As this decision criterion is not always suitable, we propose in this paper an algorithm for computing a policy optimal for the quantile…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-12-02 Hugo Gilbert , Paul Weng , Yan Xu

In this paper, we study Markov-dependent reflected autoregressive processes, and other related models the analysis of which results in a vector-valued fixed-point functional equation of a certain type. In queueing terms, such processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-23 Ioannis Dimitriou

In this paper, we consider a wide class of time-varying multivariate causal processes which nests many classic and new examples as special cases. We first prove the existence of a weakly dependent stationary approximation for our model…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-06-02 Jiti Gao , Bin Peng , Wei Biao Wu , Yayi Yan

We study ergodic properties of some Markov chains models in random environments when the random Markov kernels that define the dynamic satisfy some usual drift and small set conditions but with random coefficients. In particular, we adapt a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-08-16 Lionel Truquet