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Estimating causal relations is vital in understanding the complex interactions in multivariate time series. Non-linear coupling of variables is one of the major challenges inaccurate estimation of cause-effect relations. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Wasim Ahmad , Maha Shadaydeh , Joachim Denzler

Causality graphs are routinely estimated in social sciences, natural sciences, and engineering due to their capacity to efficiently represent the spatiotemporal structure of multivariate data sets in a format amenable for human…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-16 Bakht Zaman , Luis Miguel Lopez Ramos , Daniel Romero , Baltasar Beferull-Lozano

We propose a constraint-based algorithm, which automatically determines causal relevance thresholds, to infer causal networks from data. We call these topological thresholds. We present two methods for determining the threshold: the first…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-24 Filipe Barroso , Diogo Gomes , Gareth J. Baxter

Time-varying causal models provide a powerful framework for studying dynamic scientific systems, yet most existing approaches assume that the underlying causal network is known a priori - an assumption rarely satisfied in real-world domains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Dmitry Zaytsev , Valentina Kuskova , Michael Coppedge

The present study explores the intricacies of causal relationship extraction, a vital component in the pursuit of causality knowledge. Causality is frequently intertwined with temporal elements, as the progression from cause to effect is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-04-24 Xiaosong Yuan , Ke Chen , Wanli Zuo , Yijia Zhang

Discovering causal relationships in complex multivariate time series is a fundamental scientific challenge. Traditional methods often falter, either by relying on restrictive linear assumptions or on conditional independence tests that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Gian Marco Paldino , Gianluca Bontempi

Identifying ``true causality'' is a fundamental challenge in complex systems research. Widely adopted methods, like the Granger causality test, capture statistical dependencies between variables rather than genuine driver-response…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-05 Yingzhu Liu , Shengyuan Huang , Zhongkui Li , Xiaoguang Yang , Wenjun Mei

Causal structure discovery in complex dynamical systems is an important challenge for many scientific domains. Although data from (interventional) experiments is usually limited, large amounts of observational time series data sets are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Bart Bussmann , Jannes Nys , Steven Latré

We introduce a novel framework for temporal causal discovery and inference that addresses two key challenges: complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations. Our approach employs a multi-layer Transformer-based time-series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Jihua Huang , Yi Yao , Ajay Divakaran

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-08-13 Stefan Haufe , Guido Nolte , Klaus-Robert Mueller , Nicole Kraemer

Inferring causal relationships in observational time series data is an important task when interventions cannot be performed. Granger causality is a popular framework to infer potential causal mechanisms between different time series. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-22 Zexuan Yin , Paolo Barucca

Most approaches for assessing causality in complex dynamical systems fail when the interactions between variables are inherently non-linear and non-stationary. Here we introduce Temporal Autoencoders for Causal Inference (TACI), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Josuan Calderon , Gordon J. Berman

Granger causality is widely used for causal structure discovery in complex systems from multivariate time series data. Traditional Granger causality tests based on linear models often fail to detect even mild non-linear causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Ziyi Zhang , Shaogang Ren , Xiaoning Qian , Nick Duffield

Temporal causal analysis means understanding the underlying causes behind observed variables over time. Deep learning based methods such as transformers are increasingly used to capture temporal dynamics and causal relationships beyond mere…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Riya Mahesh , Rahul Vashisht , Chandrashekar Lakshminarayanan

Identifying causal relations among simultaneously acquired signals is an important problem in multivariate time series analysis. For linear stochastic systems Granger proposed a simple procedure called the Granger causality to detect such…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 Yonghong Chen , Govindan Rangarajan , Jianfeng Feng , Mingzhou Ding

Exploratory analysis of time series data can yield a better understanding of complex dynamical systems. Granger causality is a practical framework for analysing interactions in sequential data, applied in a wide range of domains. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Ričards Marcinkevičs , Julia E. Vogt

Causality defines the relationship between cause and effect. In multivariate time series field, this notion allows to characterize the links between several time series considering temporal lags. These phenomena are particularly important…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-01 Antonin Arsac , Aurore Lomet , Jean-Philippe Poli

While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection repose upon linear time series assumptions, many interactions in neuroscience and economics applications are nonlinear. We develop an approach to nonlinear Granger causality…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-26 Alex Tank , Ian Cover , Nicholas J. Foti , Ali Shojaie , Emily B. Fox

A novel approach is developed for discovering directed connectivity between specified pairs of nodes in a high-dimensional network (HDN) of brain signals. To accurately identify causal connectivity for such specified objectives, it is…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-06 Sipan Aslan , Hernando Ombao

Incorporating nonlinearity is paramount to predicting the future states of a dynamical system, its response to shocks, and its underlying causal network. However, most existing methods for causality detection and impulse response, such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-08 Kurt Izak Cabanilla , Kevin Thomas Go
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