Related papers: Credit Spreads' Term Structure: Stochastic Modelin…
This paper explores the capabilities of the Constant Elasticity of Variance model driven by a mixed-fractional Brownian motion (mfCEV) [Axel A. Araneda. The fractional and mixed-fractional CEV model. Journal of Computational and Applied…
Stochastic network calculus is a newly developed theory for stochastic service guarantee analysis of computer networks. In the current stochastic network calculus literature, its fundamental models are based on the cumulative amount of…
Consistent Recalibration models (CRC) have been introduced to capture in necessary generality the dynamic features of term structures of derivatives' prices. Several approaches have been suggested to tackle this problem, but all of them,…
Point processes model the distribution of random point sets in mathematical spaces, such as spatial and temporal domains, with applications in fields like seismology, neuroscience, and economics. Existing statistical and machine learning…
We propose a model for the credit markets in which the random default times of bonds are assumed to be given as functions of one or more independent "market factors". Market participants are assumed to have partial information about each of…
Credit Valuation Adjustment is a balance sheet item which is nowadays subject to active risk management by specialized traders. However, one of the most important risk factors, which is the vector of default intensities of the counterparty,…
Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…
The paper studies derivative asset analysis in structural credit risk models where the asset value of the firm is not fully observable. It is shown that in order to compute the price dynamics of traded securities one needs to solve a…
The current research on credit risk is primarily focused on modeling default probabilities. Recovery rates are often treated as an afterthought; they are modeled independently, in many cases they are even assumed constant. This is despite…
A new class of probabilistic models for cascading failure propagation in interconnected systems is proposed. The models take into account important characteristics of real systems that are not considered in existing generic approaches.…
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
This paper is a contribution to the Proceedings of the Workshop Complexity, Metastability and Nonextensivity held in Erice 20-26 July 2004, to be published by World Scientific. We propose a generalization to Merton's model for evaluating…
We show that stochastic recovery always leads to counter-intuitive behaviors in the risk measures of a CDO tranche - namely, continuity on default and positive credit spread risk cannot be ensured simultaneously. We then propose a simple…
Options with maturities below one week, hereafter "ultra-short-term" options, have seen a sharp increase in trading activity in recent years. Yet, these instruments are difficult to price jointly using classical pricing models due to the…
We build a 167-indicator comprehensive credit risk indicator set, integrating macro, corporate financial, bond-specific indicators, and for the first time, 30 large-scale corporate non-financial indicators. We use seven machine learning…
Stochastic Structural Stability Theory (SSST) provides an autonomous, deterministic, nonlinear dynamical system for evolving the statistical mean state of a turbulent system. In this work SSST is applied to the problem of understanding the…
Stochastic linear modelling proposed in Tissot, M\'emin & Cavalieri (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 912, 2021, A51) is based on classical conservation laws subject to a stochastic transport. Once linearised around the mean flow and expressed in the…
Overnight rates, such as the SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) in the US, are central to the current reform of interest rate benchmarks. A striking feature of overnight rates is the presence of jumps and spikes occurring at…
This paper introduces novel volatility diffusion models to account for the stylized facts of high-frequency financial data such as volatility clustering, intra-day U-shape, and leverage effect. For example, the daily integrated volatility…
We propose a conditional stochastic interpolation (CSI) method for learning conditional distributions. CSI is based on estimating probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations that transport a reference distribution to the…