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Inferring causal relationships between variable pairs in the observational study is crucial but challenging, due to the presence of unmeasured confounding. While previous methods employed the negative controls to adjust for the confounding…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-21 Yong Wu , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

Longitudinal and high-dimensional measurements have become increasingly common in biomedical research. However, methods to predict survival outcomes using covariates that are both longitudinal and high-dimensional are currently missing. In…

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential in survival prediction, particularly in clinical settings where erroneous decisions carry high risk. Conformal prediction has attracted substantial attention as it offers a model-agnostic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Jaeyoung Shin , Chi Hyun Lee , Sangwook Kang

Our objective is to construct well-calibrated prediction sets for a time-to-event outcome subject to right-censoring with guaranteed coverage. Inspired by modern conformal inference, our approach avoids the need for a well-specified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Rebecca Farina , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Uncertainty quantification of prediction models through prediction sets is increasingly popular and successful, but most existing methods rely on directly observing the outcome and do not appropriately handle censored outcomes, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-06 Wenwen Si , Hongxiang Qiu

In many scientific experiments, the data annotating cost constraints the pace for testing novel hypotheses. Yet, modern machine learning pipelines offer a promising solution, provided their predictions yield correct conclusions. We focus on…

The paper introduces a novel conditional independence (CI) based method for linear and nonlinear, lagged and contemporaneous causal discovery from observational time series in the causally sufficient case. Existing CI-based methods such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-07 Jakob Runge

Typically, case-control studies to estimate odds-ratios associating risk factors with disease incidence from logistic regression only include cases with newly diagnosed disease. Recently proposed methods allow incorporating information on…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-19 Soutrik Mandal , Jing Qin , Ruth M. Pfeiffer

Cohort studies of the onset of a disease often encounter left-truncation on the event time of interest in addition to right-censoring due to variable enrollment times of study participants. Analysis of such event time data can be biased if…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-11 Spencer Matthews , Bin Nan

This paper presents a conformal prediction procedure to generate two-sided or one-sided prediction intervals for survival times in the presence of right censoring. Specifically, the method provides two-sided predictive bounds for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-23 Chris Holmes , Ariane Marandon

A new method for the analysis of time to ankylosis complication on a dataset of replanted teeth is proposed. In this context of left-censored, interval-censored and right-censored data, a Cox model with piecewise constant baseline hazard is…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-15 Olivier Bouaziz , Eva Lauridsen , Grégory Nuel

There is a surge in medical follow-up studies that include longitudinal covariates in the modeling of survival data. So far, the focus has been largely on right-censored survival data. We consider survival data that are subject to both left…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-09-25 Yu-Ru Su , Jane-Ling Wang

Inferring causal relations from time series measurements is an ill-posed mathematical problem, where typically an infinite number of potential solutions can reproduce the given data. We explore in depth a strategy to disambiguate between…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-11-04 George Stepaniants , Bingni W. Brunton , J. Nathan Kutz

Individualized treatment rules can lead to better health outcomes when patients have heterogeneous responses to treatment. Very few individualized treatment rule estimation methods are compatible with a multi-treatment observational study…

Many studies employ the analysis of time-to-event data that incorporates competing risks and right censoring. Most methods and software packages are geared towards analyzing data that comes from a continuous failure time distribution.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-06 Tomer Meir , Malka Gorfine

We propose a method to quantify uncertainty around individual survival distribution estimates using right-censored data, compatible with any survival model. Unlike classical confidence intervals, the survival bands produced by this method…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Matteo Sesia , Vladimir Svetnik

Censored data, where the event time is partially observed, are challenging for survival probability estimation. In this paper, we introduce a novel nonparametric fiducial approach to interval-censored data, including right-censored, current…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-30 Yifan Cui , Jan Hannig , Michael Kosorok

It is often of interest to study the association between covariates and the cumulative incidence of a right-censored time-to-event outcome. When time-varying covariates are measured on a fixed discrete time scale, it is desirable to account…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Hongxiang Qiu , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke , Peter B. Gilbert

Unmeasured confounding and selection bias are often of concern in observational studies and may invalidate a causal analysis if not appropriately accounted for. Under outcome-dependent sampling, a latent factor that has causal effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Kendrick Qijun Li , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Imputation is a popular approach to handling censored, missing, and error-prone covariates -- all coarsened data types for which the true values are unknown. However, there are nuances to imputing these different data types based on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-29 Sarah C. Lotspeich , Ethan M. Alt