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Dynamic prediction of causal effects under different treatment regimes conditional on an individual's characteristics and longitudinal history is an essential problem in precision medicine. This is challenging in practice because outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-07 Yizhen Xu , Jisoo Kim , Laura K. Hummers , Ami A. Shah , Scott Zeger

As estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) is increasingly adopted across a wide range of scientific and industrial applications, the treatment action space can naturally expand, from a binary treatment variable to a structured…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Jennifer Y. Zhang , Shuyang Du , Will Y. Zou

Problem definition: Mining for heterogeneous responses to an intervention is a crucial step for data-driven operations, for instance to personalize treatment or pricing. We investigate how to estimate price sensitivity from…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Jean Pauphilet

Estimating the causal dose-response function is challenging, particularly when data from a single source are insufficient to estimate responses precisely across all exposure levels. To overcome this limitation, we propose a data fusion…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-23 Jaewon Lim , Alex Luedtke

Recent methodological developments have introduced new black-box approaches to better estimate heterogeneous treatment effects; however, these methods fall short of providing interpretable characterizations of the underlying individuals who…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-19 Melody Huang , Tiffany M. Tang , Ana M. Kenney

Identifying heterogeneity in a population's response to a health or policy intervention is crucial for evaluating and informing policy decisions. We propose a novel heterogeneous treatment effect estimator in the difference-in-differences…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-24 Xinkun Nie , Chen Lu , Stefan Wager

Precision rehabilitation offers the promise of an evidence-based approach for optimizing individual rehabilitation to improve long-term functional outcomes. Emerging techniques, including those driven by artificial intelligence, are rapidly…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-11-07 R. James Cotton , Bryant A. Seamon , Richard L. Segal , Randal D. Davis , Amrita Sahu , Michelle M. McLeod , Pablo Celnik , Sharon L. Ramey

Estimating dynamic treatment effects is a crucial endeavor in causal inference, particularly when confronted with high-dimensional confounders. Doubly robust (DR) approaches have emerged as promising tools for estimating treatment effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-17 Jelena Bradic , Weijie Ji , Yuqian Zhang

The credibility revolution advances the use of research designs that permit identification and estimation of causal effects. However, understanding which mechanisms produce measured causal effects remains a challenge. The dominant current…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-08 Jiawei Fu , Tara Slough

Estimates of heterogeneous treatment assignment effects can inform treatment decisions. Under the presence of non-adherence (e.g., patients do not adhere to their assigned treatment), both the standard backdoor adjustment (SBD) and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Winston Chen , Trenton Chang , Jenna Wiens

This article investigates the model-robustness of fixed-effects models for analyzing a broad class of longitudinal cluster trials (CTs) such as stepped-wedge, parallel-with-baseline and crossover designs, encompassing both randomized (CRTs)…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Kenneth M. Lee , Fan Li

A central goal of modern causal inference is estimating heterogeneous treatment effects to answer questions like "how does an intervention affect each unit," rather than only on average. We study this problem with panel-data where we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Anay Mehrotra , Phuc Tran , Van H. Vu , Manolis Zampetakis

Reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved remarkable success in a wide range of sequential decision-making problems. Recent diffusion-based policies further improve RL by modeling complex, high-dimensional action distributions. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Xiaofeng Xiao , Xiao Hu , Yang Ye , Xubo Yue

The paper proposes a causal supervised machine learning algorithm to uncover treatment effect heterogeneity in sharp and fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) designs. We develop a criterion for building an honest ``regression discontinuity…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-01 Ágoston Reguly

We often seek to estimate the impact of an exposure naturally occurring or randomly assigned at the cluster-level. For example, the literature on neighborhood determinants of health continues to grow. Likewise, community randomized trials…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-08 Laura B. Balzer , Wenjing Zheng , Mark J. van der Laan , Maya L. Petersen

The traditional model specification of stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trials assumes a homogeneous treatment effect across time while adjusting for fixed-time effects. However, when treatment effects vary over time, the constant effect…

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has significantly enhanced large language models (LLMs) in knowledge-intensive tasks by incorporating external knowledge retrieval. However, existing RAG frameworks primarily rely on semantic similarity…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-18 Elahe Khatibi , Ziyu Wang , Amir M. Rahmani

Counterfactual causal inference faces significant challenges when extended to multi-category, multi-valued treatments, where complex cross-effects between heterogeneous interventions are difficult to model. Existing methodologies remain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Xiaopeng Ke , Yihan Yu , Ruyue Zhang , Zhishuo Zhou , Fangzhou Shi , Chang Men , Zhengdan Zhu

Motivated by environmental policy questions, we address the challenges of estimation, change point detection, and uncertainty quantification of a causal exposure-response function (CERF). Under a potential outcome framework, the CERF…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-27 Boyu Ren , Xiao Wu , Danielle Braun , Natesh Pillai , Francesca Dominici

Heterogeneity in efficacy is sometimes observed across baskets in basket trials. In this study, we propose a model-free clustering framework that groups baskets based on transition probabilities derived from the trajectories of treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-05 Masahiro Kojima , Keisuke Hanada , Atsuya Sato
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