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Critical transitions are the abrupt shifts between qualitatively different states of a system, and they are crucial to understanding tipping points in complex dynamical systems across ecology, climate science, and biology. Detecting these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 Swadesh Pal , Roderick Melnik

We consider the effect on tipping from an additive periodic forcing in a canonical model with a saddle node bifurcation and a slowly varying bifurcation parameter. Here tipping refers to the dramatic change in dynamical behavior…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2015-08-28 Jielin Zhu , Rachel Kuske , Thomas Erneux

A wide variety of physical systems ranging from the firing of neurons to eutrophication of lakes to the presence of Arctic summer sea ice exhibit a phenomenon known as tipping. In mathematical models, tipping can be caused by bifurcations,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-03-14 Alanna Hoyer-Leitzel , Alice Nadeau , Andrew Roberts , Andrew Steyer

A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-07-31 Katherine Slyman , John A. Gemmer , Nicholas K. Corak , Claire Kiers , Christopher K. R. T. Jones

A deterministic dynamical system that slowly passes through a generic fold-type (saddle-node) bifurcation can be reduced to one-dimensional dynamics close to the bifurcation because of the centre manifold theorem. It is often tacitly…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-10-02 Andreas Morr , Niklas Boers , Peter Ashwin

Model studies indicate that many climate subsystems, especially ecosystems, may be vulnerable to 'tipping': a 'catastrophic process' in which a system, driven by gradually changing external factors, abruptly transitions (or 'collapses')…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-06-30 Dock Staal , Arjen Doelman

Current early warning signs for tipping points often fail to distinguish between catastrophic shifts and less dramatic state changes, such as spatial pattern formation. This paper introduces a novel method that addresses this limitation by…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-10-03 Paul A. Sanders , Robbin Bastiaansen

Deep learning offers powerful tools for anticipating tipping points in complex systems, yet its potential for detecting flickering (noise-driven switching between coexisting stable states) remains unexplored. Flickering is a hallmark of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-08 Yazdan Babazadeh Maghsoodlo , Madhur Anand , Chris T. Bauch

Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Christian Kuehn

Rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) occurs when a ramp parameter changes rapidly enough to cause the system to tip between co-existing, attracting states, while noise-induced tipping (N-tipping) occurs when there are random transitions between…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-10-02 Katherine Slyman , Emmanuel Fleurantin , Christopher K. R. T. Jones

Noise is usually regarded as adversarial to extract the effective dynamics from time series, such that the conventional data-driven approaches usually aim at learning the dynamics by mitigating the noisy effect. However, noise can have a…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2023-09-12 Zequn Lin , Zhaofan Lu , Zengru Di , Ying Tang

Critical transitions, ubiquitous in nature and technology, necessitate anticipation to avert adverse outcomes. While many studies focus on bifurcation-induced tipping, where a control parameter change leads to destabilization, alternative…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-03-03 Martin Heßler , Oliver Kamps

Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2013-02-14 Peter Ashwin , Sebastian Wieczorek , Renato Vitolo , Peter Cox

Many physical systems are forced by external inputs, which can sometimes take the form of chaotic variation. A particular example is found in applications related to weather and climate, where chaotic variation is prevalent across various…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-03-17 Courtney Quinn , Hassan Alkhayuon

Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-11 Haim Weissmann , Nadav M. Shnerb

The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) has played a key role in the search for reliable precursors of catastrophic regime shifts. This is caused by its presence in a generic class of bifurcating dynamical systems. Simple time-series…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Paolo Bernuzzi , Christian Kuehn , Andreas Morr

We discuss tipping phenomena (critical transitions) in nonautonomous systems using an example of a bistable ecosystem model with environmental changes represented by time-varying parameters [Scheffer et al., Ecosystems, 11 (2008), pp.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-11-24 Paul E. O'Keeffe , Sebastian Wieczorek

Many natural and man-made systems are prone to critical transitions -- abrupt and potentially devastating changes in dynamics. Deep learning classifiers can provide an early warning signal (EWS) for critical transitions by learning generic…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-02-12 Thomas M. Bury , Daniel Dylewsky , Chris T. Bauch , Madhur Anand , Leon Glass , Alvin Shrier , Gil Bub

Nonlinear dynamical systems may be exposed to tipping points, critical thresholds at which small changes in the external inputs or in the systems parameters abruptly shift the system to an alternative state with a contrasting dynamical…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2016-10-07 Everton S. Medeiros , Iberê L. Caldas , Murilo S. Baptista , Ulrike Feudel

Rate-induced tipping occurs when a ramp parameter changes rapidly enough to cause the system to tip between co-existing, attracting states. We show that the addition of noise to the system can cause it to tip well below the critical rate at…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-01-25 Katherine Slyman , Christopher K. Jones