Related papers: Local Sequential MCMC for Data Assimilation with A…

In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…

We introduce a data assimilation strategy aimed at accurately capturing key non-Gaussian structures in probability distributions using a small ensemble size. A major challenge in statistical forecasting of nonlinearly coupled multiscale…

Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonly used for prediction and inference for spatial data analyses. However, since estimation and prediction tasks have cubic time and quadratic memory complexity in number of locations, GPs are difficult to…

In many problems, complex non-Gaussian and/or nonlinear models are required to accurately describe a physical system of interest. In such cases, Monte Carlo algorithms are remarkably flexible and extremely powerful approaches to solve such…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo (NSMC), a methodology to sample from sequences of probability distributions, even where the random variables are high-dimensional. NSMC generalises the SMC framework by requiring only approximate,…

Adaptive moving spatial meshes are useful for solving physical models given by time-dependent partial differentialequations. However, special consideration must be given when combining adaptive meshing procedures with ensemble-based data…

Bayesian approaches have been successfully integrated into training deep neural networks. One popular family is stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (SG-MCMC), which have gained increasing interest due to their scalability…

We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models,…

Efficient sampling of many-dimensional and multimodal density functions is a task of great interest in many research fields. We describe an algorithm that allows parallelizing inherently serial Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by…

Accurate weather and climate prediction relies on data assimilation (DA), which estimates the Earth system state by integrating observations with models. While exascale computing has significantly advanced earth simulation, scalable and…

In order to tackle the problem of sampling from heavy tailed, high dimensional distributions via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, Yang, Latuszy\'nski, and Roberts (2022) (arXiv:2205.12112) introduces the stereographic projection as…

We apply two data assimilation (DA) methods, a smoother and a filter, and a model-free machine learning (ML) shallow network to forecast two weakly turbulent systems. We analyse the effect of the spatial sparsity of observations on accuracy…

In recent years, machine learning (ML) has been proposed to devise data-driven parametrisations of unresolved processes in dynamical numerical models. In most cases, the ML training leverages high-resolution simulations to provide a dense,…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…

The recent surge in machine learning (ML) methods for geophysical modeling has raised the question of how these methods might be applied to data assimilation (DA). We focus on diffusion modeling (a form of generative artificial…

This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…

We consider the inverse problem of estimating the initial condition of a partial differential equation, which is only observed through noisy measurements at discrete time intervals. In particular, we focus on the case where Eulerian…