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Accurate trajectory prediction has long been a major challenge for autonomous driving (AD). Traditional data-driven models predominantly rely on statistical correlations, often overlooking the causal relationships that govern traffic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Bonan Wang , Haicheng Liao , Chengyue Wang , Bin Rao , Yanchen Guan , Guyang Yu , Jiaxun Zhang , Songning Lai , Chengzhong Xu , Zhenning Li

We introduce an information-theoretic method for quantifying causality in chaotic systems. The approach, referred to as IT-causality, quantifies causality by measuring the information gained about future events conditioned on the knowledge…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-11-01 Adrián Lozano-Durán , Gonzalo Arranz , Yuenong Ling

Causal discovery is a difficult problem that typically relies on strong assumptions on the data-generating model, such as non-Gaussianity. In practice, many modern applications provide multiple related views of the same system, which has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Ambroise Heurtebise , Omar Chehab , Pierre Ablin , Alexandre Gramfort , Aapo Hyvärinen

The discovery of causal relationships from purely observational data is a fundamental problem in science. The most elementary form of such a causal discovery problem is to decide whether X causes Y or, alternatively, Y causes X, given joint…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-03 Joris M. Mooij , Jonas Peters , Dominik Janzing , Jakob Zscheischler , Bernhard Schölkopf

The science of causality explains/determines 'cause-effect' relationship between the entities of a system by providing mathematical tools for the purpose. In spite of all the success and widespread applications of machine-learning (ML)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Aditi Kathpalia , Keerti P. Charantimath , Nithin Nagaraj

A general theory for computing information transfers in nonlinear stochastic systems driven by deterministic forcing and additive and/or multiplicative noises, is presented. It extends the Liang-Kleeman framework of causality inference to…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2023-10-12 Carlos A. Pires , David Docquier , Stéphane Vannitsem

Pursuing invariant prediction from heterogeneous environments opens the door to learning causality in a purely data-driven way and has several applications in causal discovery and robust transfer learning. However, existing methods such as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-30 Yihong Gu , Cong Fang , Yang Xu , Zijian Guo , Jianqing Fan

We study Bayesian inverse problems with mixed noise, modeled as a combination of additive and multiplicative Gaussian components. While traditional inference methods often assume fixed or known noise characteristics, real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Paul Hagemann , Robert Gruhlke , Bernhard Stankewitz , Claudia Schillings , Gabriele Steidl

Detecting anomalies and the corresponding root causes in multivariate time series plays an important role in monitoring the behaviors of various real-world systems, e.g., IT system operations or manufacturing industry. Previous anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Wenzhuo Yang , Kun Zhang , Steven C. H. Hoi

Owing to the cross-pollination between causal discovery and deep learning, non-statistical data (e.g., images, text, etc.) encounters significant conflicts in terms of properties and methods with traditional causal data. To unify these data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-14 Hang Chen , Xinyu Yang , Qing Yang

Causal Machine Learning has emerged as a powerful tool for flexibly estimating causal effects from observational data in both industry and academia. However, causal inference from observational data relies on untestable assumptions about…

Understanding the causal effects of organ-specific features from medical imaging on clinical outcomes is essential for biomedical research and patient care. We propose a novel Functional Linear Structural Equation Model (FLSEM) to capture…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-29 Ting Li , Ethan Fan , Tengfei Li , Hongtu Zhu

Information theoretic (IT) approaches to quantifying causal influences have experienced some popularity in the literature, in both theoretical and applied (e.g. neuroscience and climate science) domains. While these causal measures are…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-08-26 Gabriel Schamberg , William Chapman , Shang-Ping Xie , Todd P. Coleman

Causality is essential for understanding complex systems, such as the economy, the brain, and the climate. Constructing causal graphs often relies on either data-driven or expert-driven approaches, both fraught with challenges. The former…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Kai-Hendrik Cohrs , Gherardo Varando , Emiliano Diaz , Vasileios Sitokonstantinou , Gustau Camps-Valls

As large language models (LLMs) witness increasing deployment in complex, high-stakes decision-making scenarios, it becomes imperative to ground their reasoning in causality rather than spurious correlations. However, strong performance on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Yuzhe Wang , Yaochen Zhu , Jundong Li

Post-nonlinear (PNL) causal models stand out as a versatile and adaptable framework for modeling intricate causal relationships. However, accurately capturing the invertibility constraint required in PNL models remains challenging in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-30 Nu Hoang , Bao Duong , Thin Nguyen

Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-05-20 Massimiliano Zanin

Like natural complex systems such as the Earth's climate or a living cell, semiconductor lithography systems are characterized by nonlinear dynamics across more than a dozen orders of magnitude in space and time. Thousands of sensors…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-04-07 Errol Zalmijn , Tom Heskes , Tom Claassen

The Causal Roadmap outlines a systematic approach to asking and answering questions of cause-and-effect: define the quantity of interest, evaluate needed assumptions, conduct statistical estimation, and carefully interpret results. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-30 Nerissa Nance , Maya L. Petersen , Mark van der Laan , Laura B. Balzer

Linear residualization is a common practice for confounding adjustment in machine learning (ML) applications. Recently, causality-aware predictive modeling has been proposed as an alternative causality-inspired approach for adjusting for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-10 Elias Chaibub Neto