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This paper studies how insurers can chose which claims to investigate for fraud. Given a prediction model, typically only claims with the highest predicted propability of being fraudulent are investigated. We argue that this can lead to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-24 Christos Revelas , Otilia Boldea , Bas J. M. Werker

We describe an exact test of the null hypothesis that a Markov chain is nth order versus the alternate hypothesis that it is $(n+1)$-th order. The procedure does not rely on asymptotic properties, but instead builds up the test statistic…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-02-07 Shawn D. Pethel , Daniel W. Hahs

In secure communications networks there are a great number of user behavioural problems, which need to be dealt with. Curious players pose a very real and serious threat to the integrity of such a network. By traversing a network a Curious…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Liam Wagner

Twenty years ago Bondy and Vince conjectured that for any nonnegative integer $k$, except finitely many counterexamples, every graph with $k$ vertices of degree less than three contains two cycles whose lengths differ by one or two. The…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-07-25 Jun Gao , Jie Ma

We provide a new proof of Maurer, Renard, and Pietzak's result that the sum of the nCPA advantages of random permutations $P$ and $Q$ bound the CCA advantage of $P^{-1} \circ Q$. Our proof uses probability directly, as opposed to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Ben Morris , Hans Oberschelp

Classical results in voting theory show that strategic manipulation by voters is inevitable if a voting rule simultaneously satisfy certain desirable properties. Motivated by this, we study the relevant question of how often a voting rule…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-02-17 Palash Dey , Y. Narahari

We study a model of games that combines concurrency, imperfect information and stochastic aspects. Those are finite states games in which, at each round, the two players choose, simultaneously and independently, an action. Then a successor…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2011-08-31 Vincent Gripon , Olivier Serre

Consider a gambling game in which we are allowed to repeatedly bet a portion of our bankroll at favorable odds. We investigate the question of how to minimize the expected number of rounds needed to increase our bankroll to a given target…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-06 Thomas P. Hayes

The old adage says that it is better to be lucky than to be good, but when it comes to winning NCAA tournament pools, do you need to be both? This paper attempts to answer this question using data from the 2014 men's basketball tournament…

Applications · Statistics 2014-12-02 Michael J. Lopez , Gregory Matthews

This study addresses the challenge of quantifying chess puzzle difficulty - a complex task that combines elements of game theory and human cognition and underscores its critical role in effective chess training. We present GlickFormer, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Szymon Miłosz , Paweł Kapusta

A famous result in game theory known as Zermelo's theorem says that "in chess either White can force a win, or Black can force a win, or both sides can force at least a draw". The present paper extends this result to the class of all…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2016-10-25 Rabah Amir , Igor V. Evstigneev

The game of \emph{Showcase Showdown} with unlimited spins is investigated as an $n$-players continuous game, and the Nash Equilibrium strategies for the players are obtained. The sequential game with information on the results of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-15 L. Bayón , P. Fortuny ayuso , J. M. Grau , A. M. Oller-Marcén , M. M Ruíz

Many situations require people to act quickly and are characterized by asymmetric information. Since asymmetric information makes people tempted to misreport their private information for their own benefit, it is of primary importance to…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-05-05 Valerio Capraro

Let $G$ be a Dirac graph, and let $S$ be a vertex subset of $G$, chosen uniformly at random. How likely is the induced subgraph $G[S]$ to be Hamiltonian? This question, proposed by Erd\H{o}s and Faudree in 1996, was recently resolved by…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2025-08-06 Zach Hunter , Teng Liu , Aleksa Milojević , Benny Sudakov

We settle a version of the conjecture about intransitive dice posed by Conrey, Gabbard, Grant, Liu and Morrison in 2016 and Polymath in 2017. We consider generalized dice with $n$ faces and we say that a die $A$ beats $B$ if a random face…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-08 Elisabetta Cornacchia , Jan Hązła

Parrondo's paradox arises in sequences of games in which a winning expectation may be obtained by playing the games in a random order, even though each game in the sequence may be lost when played individually. We present a suitable version…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-19 Antonio Di Crescenzo

Combining ideas of Pham, Sah, Sawhney, and Simkin on spread perfect matchings in super-regular bipartite graphs with an algorithmic blow-up lemma, we prove a spread version of the blow-up lemma. Intuitively, this means that there exists a…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Rajko Nenadov , Huy Tuan Pham

The domination game is played on a graph $G$ by two players, Dominator and Staller, who alternate in selecting vertices until each vertex in the graph $G$ is contained in the closed neighbourhood of the set of selected vertices. Dominator's…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2023-02-08 Julien Portier , Leo Versteegen

We present here two examples of stochastic modelings of social phenomena. The first topic is pedestrian counter flow. Two groups of model pedestrians move in opposite directions and create congestions. It will be shown that this congestion…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-09-19 Kichi Tokuyama , Ryuta Maemura , Kengo Yokouchi , Toru Ohira

In 2010, Bre\v{s}ar, Klav\v{z}ar and Rall introduced the optimization variant of the graph domination game and the game domination number, which was proved PSPACE-hard by Bre\v{s}ar et al. in 2016. In 2024, Leo Versteegen obtained the…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2025-08-13 João Marcos Brito , Thiago Marcilon , Nicolas Martins , Rudini Sampaio