Related papers: Modelling Global Trade with Optimal Transport
Jointly modeling and forecasting economic and financial variables across a large set of countries has long been a significant challenge. Two primary approaches have been utilized to address this issue: the vector autoregressive model with…
The statistical analysis of import/export data is helpful to understand the mechanism that determines exchanges in an economic network. The probability of having a commercial relationship between two countries often depends on some…
Discrete optimal transportation problems arise in various contexts in engineering, the sciences and the social sciences. Often the underlying cost criterion is unknown, or only partly known, and the observed optimal solutions are corrupted…
Integrating renewable energy production into the electricity grid is an important policy goal to address climate change. However, such an integration faces economic and technological challenges. As power generation by renewable sources…
This paper develops a strategic model of trade between two regions in which, depending on the relation among output, financial resources and transportation costs, the adjustment of prices towards an equilibrium is studied. We derive…
This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify…
Analyzing real data on international trade covering the time interval 1950-2000, we show that in each year over the analyzed period the network is a typical representative of the ensemble of maximally random weighted networks, whose…
Transportation networks play a crucial role in human mobility, the exchange of goods, and the spread of invasive species. With 90% of world trade carried by sea, the global network of merchant ships provides one of the most important modes…
A novel spatiotemporal framework using diverse econometric approaches is proposed in this research to analyze relationships among eight economy-wide variables in varying market conditions. Employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Granger…
Maritime shipping is a backbone of international trade and, thus, the world economy. Cargo-loaded vessels travel from one country's port to another via an underlying port-to-port transport network, contributing to international trade values…
Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction…
This paper begins to explore the determinants of the topological properties of the international - trade network (ITN). We fit bilateral-trade flows using a standard gravity equation to build a "residual" ITN where trade-link weights are…
We develop the Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct world trade network obtained from the UN COMTRADE database in recent years. The comparison is done between this new approach and the usual Import-Export description of this world…
Global supply networks in agriculture, manufacturing, and services are a defining feature of the modern world. The efficiency and the distribution of surpluses across different parts of these networks depend on choices of intermediaries.…
Countries participate in global value chains by engaging in backward and forward transactions connecting multiple geographically dispersed production stages. Inspired by network theory, we model global trade as a multilayer network and…
Knowledge representation (KR) is vital in designing symbolic notations to represent real-world facts and facilitate automated decision-making tasks. Knowledge graphs (KGs) have emerged so far as a popular form of KR, offering a contextual…
Based on the misleading expectation that weighted network properties always offer a more complete description than purely topological ones, current economic models of the International Trade Network (ITN) generally aim at explaining local…
International trade is based on a set of complex relationships between different countries that can be modelled as an extremely dense network of interconnected agents. On the one hand, this network might favour the economic growth of…
Economy, and consequently trade, is a fundamental part of human social organization which, until now, has not been studied within the network modelling framework. Networks are mathematical tools used in the modelling of a wide variety of…
Despite global efforts to harmonize international trade statistics, our understanding of digital trade and its implications remains limited. Here, we introduce a method to estimate bilateral exports and imports for dozens of sectors…