Related papers: Robust financial calibration: a Bayesian approach …

This paper describes and discusses Bayesian Neural Network (BNN). The paper showcases a few different applications of them for classification and regression problems. BNNs are comprised of a Probabilistic Model and a Neural Network. The…

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Compared to point estimates calculated by standard neural networks, Bayesian neural networks (BNN) provide probability distributions over the output predictions and model parameters, i.e., the weights. Training the weight distribution of a…

Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions - this is…

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization, rather than using a single setting of weights. Bayesian marginalization can particularly improve the accuracy and calibration of modern deep neural networks, which…

Outliers can seriously distort statistical inference by inducing excessive sensitivity in the likelihood function, thereby compromising the reliability of Bayesian estimation. To address this issue, we develop a robust Bayesian estimation…

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Techniques from deep learning play a more and more important role for the important task of calibration of financial models. The pioneering paper by Hernandez [Risk, 2017] was a catalyst for resurfacing interest in research in this area. In…

Mathematical solvers use parametrized Optimization Problems (OPs) as inputs to yield optimal decisions. In many real-world settings, some of these parameters are unknown or uncertain. Recent research focuses on predicting the value of these…

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Finding methods for making generalizable predictions is a fundamental problem of machine learning. By looking into similarities between the prediction problem for unknown data and the lossless compression we have found an approach that…

Bayesian learning is a powerful learning framework which combines the external information of the data (background information) with the internal information (training data) in a logically consistent way in inference and prediction. By…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold great promise as a flexible and principled solution to deal with uncertainty when learning from finite data. Among approaches to realize probabilistic inference in deep neural networks, variational Bayes…

Bayesian neural networks utilize probabilistic layers that capture uncertainty over weights and activations, and are trained using Bayesian inference. Since these probabilistic layers are designed to be drop-in replacement of their…

In this paper, we introduce BNN-DP, an efficient algorithmic framework for analysis of adversarial robustness of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). Given a compact set of input points $T\subset \mathbb{R}^n$, BNN-DP computes lower and upper…

A data-driven approach called CaNN (Calibration Neural Network) is proposed to calibrate financial asset price models using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Determining optimal values of the model parameters is formulated as training…

Deep neural networks offer numerous potential applications across geoscience, for example, one could argue that they are the state-of-the-art method for predicting faults in seismic datasets. In quantitative reservoir characterization…

Deep Gaussian process models typically employ discrete hierarchies, but recent advancements in differential Gaussian processes (DiffGPs) have extended these models to infinite depths. However, existing DiffGP approaches often overlook the…

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have shown promising performance for language modeling. However, traditional training of RNNs using back-propagation through time often suffers from overfitting. One reason for this is that stochastic…