Related papers: Some statistical aspects of the Covid-19 response
The impact of mitigation or control measures on an epidemics can be estimated by fitting the parameters of a compartmental model to empirical data, and running the model forward with modified parameters that account for a specific measure.…
We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply…
This report provides a visual examination of Covid-19 case and death data. In particular, it shows that country specific differences can too a large extend be explained by two easily interpreted parameters. Namely, the delay between…
This paper studies whether and how differently projected information about the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic affects individuals' prosocial behavior and expectations on future outcomes. We conducted an online experiment with British…
There are many hard-to-reconcile numbers circulating concerning Covid-19. Using reports from random testing, the fatality ratio per infection is evaluated and used to extract further information on the actual fraction of infections and the…
I critique a recent analysis (Miles, Stedman & Heald, 2020) of COVID-19 lockdown costs and benefits, focussing on the United Kingdom (UK). Miles et al. (2020) argue that the March-June UK lockdown was more costly than the benefit of lives…
COVID-19 pandemic has brought the whole world to a stand-still over the last few months. In particular the pace at which pandemic has spread has taken everybody off-guard. The Governments across the world have responded by imposing…
We discuss several issues of statistical design, data collection, analysis, communication, and decision making that have arisen in recent and ongoing coronavirus studies, focusing on tools for assessment and propagation of uncertainty. This…
Visualizing data plays a pivotal role in portraying important scientific information. Hence, visualization techniques aid in displaying relevant graphical interpretations from the varied structures of data, which is found otherwise. In this…
Large-scale testing is considered key to assess the state of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, the link between the reported case numbers and the true state of the pandemic remains elusive. We develop mathematical models based on…
In this paper, we study the trending behaviour of COVID-19 data at country level, and draw attention to some existing econometric tools which are potentially helpful to understand the trend better in future studies. In our empirical study,…
One clear aspect of behaviour in the COVID-19 pandemic has been people's focus on, and response to, reported or observed infection numbers in their community. We describe a simple model of infectious disease spread in a pandemic situation…
Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…
One of the difficulties in monitoring an ongoing pandemic is deciding on the metric that best describes its status when multiple intercorrelated measurements are available. Having a single measure, such as the effective reproduction number…
The time when everyone is struggling in the cruel hands of COVID19, we present the holistic view on the effects of this pandemic in certain aspects of life. A lot of literature exists in COVID-19, but most of them talk about the social and…
Models for epidemic spread typically account for variable risk factors but do not account for the correlation between behavior and risk. Here we extend these models to account for such correlations. We find that a positive correlation…
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic policy uncertainty in the US and the UK. The impact of the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country, and the increase in the number of…
A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic renormalisation group approach to pandemics, together with…
The COVID-19 pandemic left its unique mark on the 21st century as one of the most significant disasters in history, triggering governments all over the world to respond with a wide range of interventions. However, these restrictions come…
We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in…